According to a new poll, Republican party candidate François Fillon would be eliminated in the first round of the French presidential election. The runoff would take place between Marine Le Pen from the extreme-right Front National and the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron.
Magistrate to investigate Fillon’s fake jobs
Added on February 24, 2017 at 21:01 Paris time: Today, French prosecutors made public that a magistrate will be involved in what had been so far a preliminary probe led by police.
This move was largely overdue given the fact that, for instance, in her best-paid year, Penelope Fillon worked for her husband’s successor in parliament. Another assistant working for that parliamentarian said that she did not know that Fillon’s wife was working for that man too. Since Penelope Fillon earned the bulk of the money at a parliamentarian’s disposal to pay his assistants, she most likely did the bulk if not all the work for a much smaller amount than Penelope.
Given the fact that Fillon had made his integrity a cornerstone of his campaign, he was toast the moment the fake jobs scandal involving his wife and two of their children erupted in January 2017.
Here in French key elements of today’s statement by the Parquet national financier: The Parquet national financier will notably investigate the François and Penelope Fillon for «détournement de fonds publics, abus de biens sociaux, complicité et recel de ces délits, trafic d’influence et manquements aux obligations de déclaration à la Haute autorité sur la transparence de la vie publique».
Added on February 2, 2017 at 16:58 Swiss time: A 45-minute interview video by the Sunday Telegraph from 2007 has re-surfaced and will air again tonight on the French public channel France 2 at 20:50. Penelope Fillon says that she has never been her husband’s assistant and that has never done anything like that for him. She added that she had never been in charge of her husband’s communication either.
Article added on February 1, 2017 at 20:27 Swiss time: Within a few days, since the publication of a devastating report by Le Canard Enchaîné on January 25, the French presidential field has been turned upside down. The frontrunner and great favorite, François Fillon, has seen his image severely damaged. In November 2016, he was the the hot favorite. Now he risks to finish empty handed.
The latest polls show Fillon in third place and, therefore, no longer in the second round of the presidential election
A poll by Elabe published today, realized on January 30 and 31, credits François Fillon with only 19% to 20% of voter intention. He would finish third in the first round of the French presidential election, behind Marine Le Pen (26% to 27%) of the extreme-right Front National and the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron (22% to 23%), a former minister of the economy of the discredited Socialist President Hollande, who was forced by catastrophic polls to renounce a re-election bid.
Interestingly, the Elabe poll shows that the supporters of Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president defeated in the open Republican primary, would not all vote for François Fillon. Only 56% to 60% said they would vote for Fillon, the official candidate of Les Républicains, 18% to 20% said that they preferred Emmanuel Macron, and 14% indicated a preference for Marine Le Pen. This movement away from Fillon could be accentuated if the accusations against François Fillon can be further substantiated or if the candidate cannot dissipate them.
In the second round, the runoff election, Fillon and Macron would both trash the Marine Le Pen hands down. Macron for instance would win the second round of the presidential election with 65% against Marine Le Pen.
Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen as strongest rivals
Marine Le Pen and her infamous father, the anti-Semitic and extreme right-wing Jean Marine Le Pen, have both fake job scandals to handle regarding the European Parliament. Both affairs are not cases of nepotism, but Marine and Jean-Marie paid assistants who did not work for them in the EU Parliament, but who were working for the FN party in France. Similar affairs have haunted all major French parties. However, there are legal problems for the Front National regarding ALL elections since 2012! Furthermore, the FN is obviously a family affair: father, daughter, granddaughter. The Le Pen family is in no position to attack Fillon.
Emmanuel Macron is so young that he has not (yet) had time enough for (major) scandals. However, the book Dans l’enfer de Bercy by Marion L’Hour and Frédéric Says accuses the former minister of the economy to have used 80% of the 2016 representation money of his ministry for himself (some €120,000) in order to prepare his presidential bid, and that in 8 months only (until his resignation). Macron said that he had not used a cent of his ministry’s money for his political movement En Marche !
Incidentally, Macron has no party behind him (yet), just his own movement as well as some parliamentarians from other parties, most famously the Socialist mayor of Lyon; Macron himself has never been a member of any party. He said he’s not a Socialist, but belongs to the political left. In reality, he is a liberal when it comes to questions of the economy as well as regarding issues of society (same sex-marriage, immigration, etc.), and he is pro-European. The big question regarding his presidential bid is, since he has no party behind him – he wants to end the party system – with whom will he govern once elected president? He needs a prime minister, a government and a majority in both houses of parliament to carry through reforms.
Several accusations against François Fillon
Back to François Fillon: He is politically finished. His credibility has severely been damaged. His is not as “exemplary”, as he pretended to be. He famously said (with Sarkozy in mind, his rival tied to many scandals): “Who could imagine General de Gaulle being brought to justice?” No, it turns out that he has been very generous with his wife. She made some €900000 over eight years as his and his successor’s parliamentary assistant, without being able so far to proof that she actually worked for him. Therefore, Penelopegate is a “fake jobs” (emplois fictifs) scandal. It is legal to employ a family member in France, but of course only if that member is really working.
An other assistant of François Fillon was quoted by the Canard Enchaîné with the words that she had never seen Fillon’s wife work for him. She was surely not amused about the fact that Penelope Fillon made in her best year – working for François Fillon’s successor, when her husband was made prime minister – around €7900 per month, whereas most parliamentary assistants make around €3000 per month.
In addition, two of Fillon’s children, then in their early twenties, have worked for him as parliamentary secretaries too, making €57000 and €26600 respectively. It is unclear yet what they actually did for their father.
This is not the end of the list of scandals. Le Canard Enchaîné also revealed that Penelope Fillon made some €100000 working for the publication Revue des deux mondes of François Fillon’s billionaire friend Marc Ladreit de Lacharrière. The publication’s boss at the time, Michel Crépu said to be stunned. He had no idea that Penelope Fillon was working for his publication.
Furthermore, the internet publication Mediapart revealed that François Fillon made some €200000 with his advisory company 2F Conseil. Fillon has never publicly mentioned working for that company. Le Monde mentioned today that François Fillon made €750000 with 2F Conseil. According to the French newspaper, Fillon created the company on June 7, 2012 just thirteen days before he became a member of parliament again ; parliamentarians are banned from starting new consulting activities once elected.
At the same time, François Fillon (rightly) asks the French people to be ready for blood, tears, toil and sweat to push through liberal reforms that are desperately needed in France. Despite an important book detailing his economic reform plan, he is now no longer in a position to ask others for sacrifices.
However, despite his sinking approval ratings, François Fillon has no intention to abandon his presidential bid. Today, he said that he would fight until the end. Anyway, he had no other choice.
The presidential race is open. However, Macron is emerging as the new favorite
In addition to Fillon, Macron and Le Pen, two other, left-wing candidates are also running for president. The Socialist Benoît Hamon, who has won the open primary of the left against former prime minister Manuel Valls, thinks that a fixed amount of work has to be distributed among the French. He has no clue about the economy. In addition, he is asking for an unconditional, minimal income for all French of working age. The other left-wing candidate is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a former Socialist Party member who later created his own party and is now backed by the French Communists. He is a left-wing tribune of the plebs with a socialist and nationalist agenda.
The conservative Fillon and the right-wing Le Pen fight for space on the right, Mélenchon and Hamon are rivals on the far left. There is a huge boulevard at the political center, occupied by Macron.
If the Republicans stay with Fillon and don’t bring back the former prime minister Alain Juppé, Macron is the new favorite ; Alain Juppé finished second in the open primary of the right and center parties. Unlike Fillon, he could win over centrists and reformists of the left.
In short, the two only “reasonable” candidates in the presidential field seemed to be François Fillon and Emmanuel Macron. With Fillon now severely “wounded”, only Macron is left. Currently, there seem to be enough French ready for something new. Macron could actually become the next French president. That would be a political revolution.
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François Fillon at the UMP launch rally of the 2010 French regional elections campaign in Paris. January 10, 2021. Source: Marie-Lan Nguyen. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fran%C3%A7ois_Fillon_2010.jpg
