Thanks to consistent polls, we can already predict that Labour led by Keir Starmer (*Sept. 2, 1962) will govern the United Kingdom. The Tories, under the half-way reasonable Rishi Sunak, never had a chance because, after 14 years in power with little results, the British are ready for a change.
Why Brexit remains a fairy tale and Rejoin is the best option
Brexit was a fairy tale from the start: Exiting the world’s largest free trade area aka the European Union to pursue free trade around the world. This does not make any sense. Rishi Sunak was never ready to admit that. He remains a Brexiter.
Keir Starmer looks honest but offers limits, not just the fact that he lacks executive experience. Originally a Remainer and former shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer once rightly advocated a second referendum on Brexit. Later, he changed his position and put up with this strategic and economic blunder. On July 4, 2022 — when the Boris Johnson government was imploding — Keir Starmer set out Labour’s five-point plan to “Make Brexit Work”. A terrible wording which echoed both Trump’s “Make America Great Again” as well as Boris Johnson’s “We are going to get Brexit done.”
Keir Starmer said: “With Labour, Britain will not go back into the EU. We will not be joining the single market. We will not be joining a customs union.” He added: “We will not return to freedom of movement to create short term fixes. Instead we will invest in our people and our places, and deliver on the promise our country has.” As I wrote in 2022 in context of this five-point plan called “Make Brexit Work”, when it comes to the Brexit issue, Labour under Keir Starmer does not offer a credible alternative to the Conservatives.
A visionary leader should recognize that the UK’s future lies within the European Union, which accounted back then for roughly half of the UK’s imports and exports. Geography will not change. Rejoin may not happen tomorrow, but the long term plan has to be laid out now. It’s better for the UK, the EU and the Free World.
Here again a few key points regarding Brexit, which were all known at the time of the Brexit referendum, but were ignored by a majority of UK voters back then.
Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and the rest of the Brexiters, including Rishi Sunak, live in a parallel, fantasy world. The Hard Brexit, as they tried to sell it to voters, does not exist. If you want access to the European market, you have to accept the EU rules and regulations.
The EU is not just a single market, a free trade area and a customs union, it is the greatest, successful peace project Europe has ever seen. It was and remains Putin’s dream, to destroy the European Union. Brexit was the ideal tool for the Russian dictator to work towards that goal, Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson were useful idiots he gladly supported through propaganda, fake news channels and more.
We live in a globalized, interconnected world with international supply chains. The United Kingdom, consisting of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, has to renegotiate all kinds of treaties and agreements. Not just with the European Union, but with the entire world. This takes years. The United Kingdom can of course survive on its own, but now the UK lacks not only direct access to the EU single market, it also has become a small power in a world with big players such as the USA, China and the EU.
London remains one of the world’s leading financial centers. But it is profiting less from access to the EU. British banks can no longer operate in the EU without restrictions. Since 2016, the EU’s share of value creation in the financial center of London has fallen from 40% to 31%.
Take back control of the borders has not worked. Not only are the traffic jams in Dover a nightmare, but net immigration to the UK has increased since the Brexit decision. Instead of Polish, Romanian and other Eastern European immigrants, the UK now welcomes more Indian, Pakistani and Nigerian nationals.
Within the UK, not everyone was and is happy with the very close decision in favor of Brexit (51.9% vs. 48.1%). Scottish nationalists have been encouraged to fight for independence, Northern Ireland was forced to find a special arrangement with Ireland and the EU, accepting rules of the single market which will strengthen the pro-Irish forces in Northern Ireland. Brexit has weakened the unity of the UK.
Brexit has strenghtened the forces that place ideology above pragmatism and refuse to acknowledge the facts. If Donald Trump should be reelected in November 2024, the situation for the UK will not get any better. The American is a protectionist who seems to regard as a zero-sum game. It will be difficult to negociate a free trade agreement or just a better deal with him. If a Democrats should remain in the White House, it won’t be much easier either.
The UK still has no free trade agreements with the USA, Canada, China, India as well as African, Arabian and South American countries. In essence, the British free trade agreements negociated with Japan and Australia are based on those of the EU with these two countries.
The UK was the EU’s second largest economy because the UK was part of the EU. Now, the British can no longer influence future EU legislation, but must continue to follow EU rules in order to trade with the EU. Furthermore, Brexit has weakened free trade advocates within the EU such as Germany and the Netherlands and strengthened the “Club Med” of the southern countries France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece.
Anyone who wants to correct the EU’s agricultural policy, the EU’s unanimity requirement and other dubious EU laws, rules and regulations, must be a member of the EU. If the UK wants to have any influence, Rejoin is mandatory.
Brexit hit both the UK and the EU. But the situation is asymmetrical, as the British are more dependent on EU imports and exports than the individual EU countries are on the British. On its own, the United Kingdom’s negociating power has been significantly weakened.
The Brexit disaster is not clearly visible because it is partly overshadowed by the pandemic. The often misguided measures to fight it led for instance to the partial collapse of international supply chains, shortages of goods and inflation.
Keir Starmer remains pro-European. He will try to take a pragmatic approach to relations with the EU. But in the long run, Rejoin will be the best option for both the UK and the EU. Whatever you may think of some of Liberal Democrats’ program points, they are the largest, consistently pro-European party in the UK.
The British once had the best deal. It was called European Union membership. They have given it up for Brexit fantasies, fueled by dreams of the return of the Empire, when Britannia ruled the waves.
Despite Brexit, UK imports from the EU still account for 48% of total imports (before Brexit: 53%), exports to the EU have fallen from 48% to now only 38%.
On Boris Johnson’s red Brexit bus, one could once read the infamous claim: “We send the EU £350 million a week. Let’s fund our NHS instead. Vote Leave.” Despite the narrow 2016 vote in favor of Brexit, the NHS is a total mess today. This is one of the major reasons why Labour under Keir Starmer will today win an absolute majority of seats in the House of commons.
Rejoin would make sense for the UK, the EU and the Free World, not just for economic reasons, but also because the UK is a permanent member of the UN Security Council and has significant conventional and nuclear forces.
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Official portrait of Keir Starmer. Photograph taken by Chris McAndrew in June 2017. Public domain.
Article added on July 4, 2024 at 10:50 German time. July 8, 2024 at 15:38 clarification of the title added: “Why Brexit remains a fairy tale and Rejoin is the best option.”
