Much ado about nothing: Iowa accounts for only 41 of the Democratic Party’s 3,979 pledged delegates. It is one of the whitest states. It is older and more rural than the average state. Therefore, Iowa is not really representative for the United States. Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have only had a 55% success rate at predicting which Democrat and a 43% success rate at predicting which Republican candidate will win the nomination of the two major parties.
Conspiracy theorists are already having a great time because the Democratic Party’s Iowa caucus results 2020 were delayed due to the incompetence of the organizers as well as the software engineers involved. Anyway, according to AP, with 62% of all precints reporting, the small-town mayor Pete Buttigieg is ahead with 26.9%, closely followed by the U.S. Senator and former small-town mayor Bernie Sanders with 25.1%. Elizabeth Warren is third with 18.3%, followed by Joe Biden with 15.6% and Amy Kobuchar with 12.6%. The other candidate one around 1% or less. Michael Bloomberg has not been campaigning in Iowa. He will enter the presidential race on Super Tuesday.
One gets the impression that the Democrats don’t know what they are doing. According to the latest Gallup poll published today, President Trump’s approval rating is at an all time high: 49%! Republicans approve him by 94% (+6%), Democrats by only 7% (-3%), independents by 42% (+5%). Overall: 50% of US Americans are disapproving of Trump, 49% approving. Only 1% (-4%) have no opinion. The United States are more divided than ever on party lines.
The Republicans also don’t know what they are doing. Trump is a protectionist and not a free trader. Despite a record low unemployment rate and a growing economy, Trump, his government and his party are delivering a huge budget deficit. What happened to the Tea Party people, the fiscally conservatives within the Republican Party? And this is just the economy. We are not talking about Trump’s many other, ill-guided and sometimes illegal (Trump’s private matter quid-pro-quo in Ukraine) decisions, his daily lies, etc.
The Democrats have to come forward with a strong candidate who can win over moderate Republicans, independents as well as people who did not vote last time. They need a leader with a record and substantial executive experience. The only person with such a record currently in the race is Michael Bloomberg, the former NYC mayor and founder of the Bloomberg news empire.
Unfortunately, as for now, too many moderates are still in the race. Bloomberg is just one of them, further dividing the moderate vote within the Democratic Party. The sooner the Democrats unite behind their best candidate aka Bloomberg, the better for the United States and the world. If Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders — with his high praise for the Soviet Union just before its end as well as for Fidel Castro’s Cuba and Daniel Ortega’s Sandinista revolution in Nicaragua — should emerge as the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, the risk of Trump’s re-election is around 50:50. We could toss a coin — or be cynical and hope for a recession just before the presidential election.
Eleanor Randolph: The Many Lives of Michael Bloomberg. Simon & Schuster, September 2019, 480 pages. Order the Kindle eBook from Amazon.com. Order the hardcover edition from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk, Amazon.de, Amazon.fr.
Bernie Sanders: Our Revolution: A Future to Believe In. Thomas Dunne Books, November 2016, 461 pages. Order the Kindle eBook from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk. Order the paperback edition from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk, Amazon.de.
Bernie Sanders: Where We Go from Here. Two Years in the Resistance. Thomas Dunne Books, November 2018, 284 pages. Order the Kindle eBook from Amazon.com. Order the paperback re-print edition from September 2019 from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk.
U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont speaking at a town meeting at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix, Arizona in 2015. Photo copyright: Gage Skidmore https://www.flickr.com/people/22007612@N05
Article added on February 4, 2020 at 23:18 German time.
