Historians may one day recognize the year 2020 as the beginning of the Asian century. In any case, the response of too many European countries as well as the United States to the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has been disastrous so far.
Swift and decisive action is needed. However, a lockdown does not offer an additional value in comparison to the basic possible measures we know: 2 meters + masks + wash your hands + tests + tracing + app + discipline. On the contrary, a lockdown is poison for the economy. Without a functioning economy, there is no healthcare system and vice versa.
Europe and the USA need to get their act together quickly. We cannot afford to waste additional, precious time. The pandemic could cause an economic depression with disastrous social and political consequences. Our democracies are at risk. This is not necessary. South Korea and Taiwan have shown that Democratic countries can deal with SARS-CoV-2 without a brutal lockdown.
The original virus response by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) — at least in the city of Wuhan and Hubei province — has been marked by denial and repression. Doctors and others who warned about the novel coronavirus and a possible epidemic were silenced. But quickly, the central power realized that its credibility and legitimacy were on the line. The CCP reacted with a brutal lockdown in a way only a dictatorship with a population brainwashed by propaganda can.
In the West, the free flow of information, transparency and the trust in the actions of our governments are vital. Things get complicated when you have an incompetent, notorius liar in the White House who suggests that sunlight and administrating a disinfectant to patients could kill SARS-CoV-2; the self-declared “stable genius” with “unmatched wisdom” got the idea from a crook and freak who falsely claims that chlorine dioxide products can cure people from cancer, HIV/AIDS, autism and, among other things, the novel coronavirus.
China is too easy a scapegoat for shortfallings of Western leaders. In the United States, not only President Trump acted irresponsibly. In early March, NYC Governor Andrew M. Cuomo and NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio downplayed the risk, partly ignored the pandemic warnings. Only in mid-March, they changed their positions and tried to fight the unfolding epidemic. Until the end of April 2020, over 12,000 people in NYC died of or with SARS-CoV-2.
For decades, the Europeans and U.S. Americans have looked down on Asians with a kind of superority complex. In 1989 and 1991, the then French prime minister Edith Cresson famously called the Japanese “yellow ants” (fourmis jaunes) who work too much under conditions innacceptable for Europeans who are used to recreational time and social security.
Asia is on the rise, notably thanks to hard work and an international division of labor in a globalized world. Trade has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty. We live in an interconnected world with international supply chains. Unfortunately, not only people, goods and services travel around the globe, but also viruses and bacteria, to name just two not so welcome travelers.
As it looks now, Asia will get quicker and with less damage to the economy out of the current pandemic. Therefore, it seems likely that the relative rise of Asian countries will continue, the relative decline of Europe and the USA in world too.
Since we are interconnected, countries that do better can help the weaker ones through the demand they can create. The elephant in the room is China. Not only is it a one-party dictatorship which crushes political dissent, oppresses minorities, ignores human rights in general, but the country also does not play on a level playing field when it comes to the economy by disregarding intellectual property rights, allowing only minority stakes in joint ventures, etc.
There are limits to China’s growth because, at one stage of development, the rule of law, transparency, the free flow of information, intellectual property rights, a low corruption level, etc. become crucial. Nevertheless, even if China should only reach half of the GDP per capita of the United States, its economy will be twice the size of the U.S. economy because China’s population is more than four times the size of the U.S.
China is not alone. Japan may be stagnating, but it’s GDP per capita is still much higher than the Chinese one. Add developed countries such as South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore to the mix as well as developing nations such as Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the other demographic giant, India, and you realize that the future is Asian, and may it be just because of the demographic weight of the region.
Since his re-election, Prime Minister Modi is pushing his intolerant, racist Hindu agenda. India still lacks a modern infrastructure, has not yet overcome its caste system and is corrupt, but it is a democracy. Development is slow in comparison with China, but there is development. One day, India may be able to counterbalance China in the region.
The USA and Europe must get their act together in the current pandemic and unfolding recession or even depression. A strategic alliance with Asian democracies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India is needed to counterbalance the pseudo-Communist dictatorship in China. The writing on the wall? China’s behaviour in the South China Sea. The beginning of the Asian century may be here. Let it be democratic.
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Article added on May 5, 2020 at 11:51 Swiss time.
