Just since 2020, several attempted and successful military coups have rocked Mali (2020, 2021), Guinea (2021), Burkina-Faso (in January and September 2022), Guinea-Bissau (unuccessful attempt in February 2022).
All thoses countries are former French colonies in which anti-French sentiments are running high. Since they and other African countries have gained independence, in the past roughly 60 years, France has intervened some 40 times in its former colonies.
In 2017, France had still military agreements with twelve CFA franc countries. In 2013 already and up to today, France has still 1,500 French soldiers as well as drones, warplanes and other military equipment stationed in Niger, the key country in France’s fight against Islamist and other terror groups in the Sahel zone and beyond. French troops have been kicked out of neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso after the 2021 and 2022 coups in those countries, but is still present in Niger, Chad, Djibouti, Gabon, Senegal.
Regarding Chad, one has to mention that France supported the political transition from the former officer and long-time president (1990-2021) Idriss Déby Itno, who was killed fighting FACT rebels, to his son, the former military officer Mahamat Déby, who has partly been trained in France.
Mahamat Déby was appointed Chad’s interim president by the military which announced that the elected government and the National Assembly were dissolved and that a Transitional Military Council led by Mahamat would lead the nation for the coming 18 months. There was not only support from France’s Macron, Mahamat Déby was also welcomed in Washington, D.C. which rightly led to accusations of hypocrisy by Western leaders who condemn the coups in Mali and Burkino Faso, but had no problem accepting the undemocratic change of power in Chad.
In October 2022, protests rocked Chad. Up to 200 people were killed. Mahamat Déby is still in power and the French and the American’s don’t look good.
In recent years, the hand of Russian President Putin’s and Yevgeny Prigozhin’s PMC Wagner mercenaries and their Internet Research Agency and other disinformation companies as well as local media created and/or supported by Russia can be felt directly or indirectly througout the entire region and beyond. So far, Wagner Group mercenaries do not seem to be active in Niger. However, their propaganda war is also raging in the country.
The Wagner Group, Russian trolls and state-owned or indirectly controlled businesses were or are active in Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, the Central Africa Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Libya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Zambia, Zimbabwe. Not sure this list is complete. Putin and Prigozhin not only send mercenaries and try to influence public opinion via social media, local media and local influencers, they also exploit mines and try to find other resources of income. It’s not just about influence. It’s last, but not least, a business.
In Guinea, Russia supported President Alpha Conde in his controversial bid to stay in power beyond his 2020 mandate because its Guinea is Russia largest beauxite supplier; beauxite is needed by Russia’s largest aluminium company Rusal. However, after the 2021 military coup, the Kremlin was clever enough to keep excellent relations with the new regime. In March 2023, Putin’s man and, according to some experts, potential next Russian president, Vyacheslaw Volodin, the Duma chairman, met the National Transition Council President Dansa Kourouma in Moscow.
The French journalist Vincent Hugeux has described how, in the Central African Republic, the Wagner Group organized the Miss Bangui election in 2018 and 2019, repainted a local radio station, founded a new radio station in the primary local language Sango, offered key posts to locals, and had the Malian singer-songwriter Saif Keita and other local cultural icons and political leaders spread conspiracy propaganda, notably against the French.
The French-born Kémi Séba, a controversial Pan-Africanist and geopolitical journalist with parents who immigrated from Benin, received some $440,000 from October 2018 until July 2019 from Yevgeny Prigozhin. He admits to have met the Wagner Group and troll firm boss as well as to have received money. But Kémi Séba claims that he used it only for logistics, that Prigozhin does not tell him what to say or write.
In short, Russia is buying cultural and political influence in Africa through events, sponsoring, local media and local languages and notable local figures.
The July 2023 Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg was attended by Wagner Group leader Prigozhin who, after the failed insurrection, obviously does not fear persecution in Russia anymore. Putin is too weak and needs him, notably in Africa. However, in 2023, “only” 17 African heads of state attended the Russia-Africa Summit, in comparison with the 43 who traveled to the Sotchi Summit in 2019. Nevertheless, in 2023, still 45 African nations were represented in St. Petersburg. However, as the French journalist Elsa Vidal noted, of the 64 agreements signed in 2019 with African states and some additional ones signed with the African Union, only 15 have since then come to life. And the agency supposed to oversee those agreements, has been abolished in 2023. In short, many African leaders have limited trust in Putin’s promises.
During the 2023 coup in Niger, footage showed people shouting support for Putin and Russia, whereas France was cursed. In short, the Kremlin and Prigojine propaganda worked, helped by an anti-French and anti-LGBT+ sentiment in the local population.
President Bazoum was a key figure in the French and American fight against terrorists in the Sahel region, including Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, Tourag and other jidhadist fighters as well as Wagner mercenaries and other gangsters.
Niger has witnessed five successful military coups and several failed ones since gaining independence in 1960. In 2021, General Abdourahamane Tchiani aka Tiani (*1960 or 1961), as commander of the presidential guard since 2011, thwarted a coup attempt just days before President Issoufou had to step down and hand over power to president-elect Mohamed Bazoum (*1960). However, on July 26, 2023 the same General Abdourahamane Tchiani was the leader of the military coup against the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum.
The 2023 Nigerien coup d’Etat was of course condemned by the United States, France, the ECOWAS Commission and many others, even Russia, although the coup plays into Putin’s hands; the Kremlin clearly aims to target French interests in the Sahel zone, despite French President Macron repeatedly warning not to “humiliate” Putin and Russia as well as trying to “mediate” between Russia and Ukraine instead of firmly standing on the side of Ukraine and NATO.
Open support for the military coup in Niger came from neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, where officers had successfully taken over power in 2021 and 2022. The interim Mali Prime Minister Lieutenant Colonel Abdoulaye Maïga (*1981), who had previously worked in the Early Warning Directorate of ECOWAS, warned the ECOWAS countries of a military intervention in Niger, which would be tantamount to a declaration of war against Burkina Faso and Mali.
Nigeria is Niger’s economically most important neighbor. Africa’s largest country with some 230 million people, Nigeria is not only roughly ten-times the size of Niger population-wise, but also roughly thirty-times Niger’s size when it comes to the country’s GDP.
After the 2023 coup, ECOWAS not only imposed economic, financial, trade and travel sanctions against Niger but also warned the military leaders behind the coup of consequences, including military ones if necessary, if the constitutional order would not be restored and President Mohamed Bahoum put back in power latest on Sunday, August 6, 2023. Since Nigeria is the most important ECOWAS country, it is clear that the leaders in Abuja hold the key for a military intervention. On Sunday August 6, either Mali and Burkina Faso or Nigeria and ECOWAS will end up as paper tigers.
Energy sanctions can severly hit Niger, which gets up to 90% of its energy supplies from Nigeria, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. The power supply from Nigeria to Niger has been cut earlier this week.
Most observers come to the conclusion that no country in the region has an interest in going to war. Mali, Burkino Faso, Niger and even Nigeria have enough problems with domestic terrorisms. Furthermore, the region is considered one of the economically most integrated in Africa. Sanctions and a war would badly hit economic interests on all sides. However, as Putin has shown in Ukraine, decisions are not always rational and/or based on biased, flawed perceptions.
General Tchiani and his junta claimed that the coup d’Etat was made to avoid “the gradual and inevitable demise” of Niger as well as to fight the persistent insecurity. However, in reality, a Reuters report shows that attacks and casualities actually decreased under President Bazoum, whereas in Mali and Burkina Faso, they increased since their respective military coups, despite Wagner mercenaries replacing French troops.
There are rumours that President Bazoum was about the sack General Tiani as commander of the presidential guard and that triggered the coup.
Niger is roughly three and a half times the size of Germany but has a population of only 26 million people. Two thirds of the country are covered by deserts. Niger suffered and suffers from an influx of fighters fleeing the Libyan civilian war, the Mali and Burkina Faso coups, the Boko Haram jihadists from Nigeria as well as al-Qaeda, Islamic State and other terrorists from the region.
According to the World Bank, agriculture accounts for 40% of Niger’s GDP, with 41.8% of the population living in extreme poverty in 2021. In 2022, the yearly GDP per capita stood at only $533. On the bright side was that the World Bank estimated Niger’s 2022 growth at 11.5%, with agricultural production increasing 27%, thanks to an above-average rain season and the expansion of irrigated production, whereas mining and manufacturing declined. The service sector benefited from the expansionary fiscal policy and the construction of an oil pipeline, which boosted market services and transport, all according to the World Bank, which estimated in March that the 2023 current account deficit would reach 17% before declining to 11.5% thanks to the launch of oil exports.
After the coup, the European Union and European countries such as Germany and France suspended their (bilateral) development projets in Niger.
Interestingly, according to the journalist Ousmane Ndiaye, in Niger, neither the French nor the Chinese, but the Turks are the main infrastructure (airports, etc.) constructors.
Inflation in Niger is over 20%, unemployment roughly one third of the active population, with over 40% youth unemployment. According to the “2023 Investment Climate Statements: Niger” by the U.S. Department of State, in 2023, China is the largest investor with $5.110 billion Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in Niger, followed by France with $2.109 billion, Turkiye aka Turkey with $365 million, the UK with $205 million and Ivory Coast with $192 million.
In 2014, behind Kazakhstan, Canada and Australia, Niger was the fourth largest producer of uranium, covering some 40% of France’s demand. Since 1968, the French company Areva had been exploiting the mines in northern Niger, paying only 5.5% in taxes. In 2014, the percentage was increased to still very low 12% but, according to press reports, were in return the facto exempted from paying value added tax. Areva promised to invest additional €100 million per year in development projects, a modest some given the fact that, in 2013, according to the IMF, Areva made some €9 billion in profits, which amounted to almost twice Niger’s GDP. Areva employed some 6000 people in Niger, which made it the country’s largest employer. Back then, the country ranked last in the United Nations’ Human Development Index (HDI), with over 60% of the population living with less than one euro per day. In the latest HDI, the United Nations rank Niger 189th out of 191 countries.
There were many reports and even documentary films about radioactive pollution in Niger by Areva and other Areva related subjects (La Colère dans le Vent, 2016; Areva & UraMin. Ein Zeitbombe der französischen Atomindustrie, a large Arte publication about Areva’s financial disaster in 2015; the Al Jazeera three-part documentary, Orphans of the Sahara, 2014).
In 2008, Areva was twice given the Public Eye Award (the People’s Award and the Global Award) for the suppression of information about the real health conditions of uranium mine workers at the Areva subsidiaries Somaïr and Cominak in northern Niger; the Public Eye Awards are awarded by NGOs to companies notorious for their bad corporate environmental and/or social government.
In 2010 already, Greenpeace had criticized that the radioactive pollution around the mines was 500 times higher than normal, that Areva was pouring polluted water into the nearby lakes and rivers, that the the uranium concentration in the drinking water was way above the World Health Organization’s recommended limit.
In 2023, nuclear energy still provides 70% of France’s electricity, but Niger only supplies France with only around 18% of its uranium, with the Kazakhstan and Australia being the largest suppliers with respectively 20% and 19%, according to the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA).
As for the global uranium production, the NEA put Kazakhstan clearly on top with 46%, followed by Namibia with 12%, Canada with 10%, Australia with 8% Uzbekistan with 7%, Russia with 6%, Niger with 5%. In short, France does not depend on uranium from Niger.
Corruption and mismanagement led to a total Areva disaster, notably under Anne Lauvergeon (“Atomic Anne”), who led Areva from 2001 until 2011. The company had to be restructured and saved by the French government, in part taken over by the public company EDF, which itself ended up with a €64 billion debt mountain in 2015.
In Niger, Areva came under pressure from terrorists early on. In 2013, the French government allegedly paid €20 to €25 million to free four Areva employees taken hostage by Al-Qaeda three years earlier.
And in 2007 already, the Touareg had attacked the Chinese mining company Sino-U in Niger, which exported uranium to China, after the once Areva-dominated business had been opened up to investors from Canada, China and India.
President Mahamadou Issoufou (*1952), who governed from April 2011 until April 2021, had studied mathematics and statistics in Montpellier and Paris before specializing in mining at Ecole nationale supérieure des mines de Saint-Etienne (all in France). He subsequently served in Niger’s ministry of mining as national director of the mines and worked several years for the Areva subsidiary SOMAIR, before embarking on a political career in 1991. As a student in France, he had been in support of socialist ideas. He was a co-founder of the socialist PNDS-Tarayya party and its 1992 presidential candidate. From April 1993 until September 1994, he served as Niger’s prime minister under President Mahamane Ousmane (*1950; April 1993 until January 1996) and, from February 1995 until January 1996, as President of Niger’s National Assembly. As mentioned above, Mahamadou Issoufou was elected President of Niger in 2011 and served until April 2021.
In the 2020-2021 presidential election, with 17% of the vote, Mahamane Ousmane finished second in the first round on December 27, 2020 far behind Mohamed Bazoum with 39,3%, but he made it into the second round which took place on February 21, 2021. Mohamed Bazoum clearly won the runoff with 55.67% against 44.33% for Mahamane Ousmane who, only at the end of June 2021, contested the outcome because of “human rights violations” and “discriminations”. He did this not in Niger, but in front of the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS. Mahamane Ousmane claimed that the Niger Electoral Commission and the Constitutional Court had not played their role. It led to nowhere.
Back to 2015. In that year already, the terror acts by the Islamist terror group Boko Haram in neighboring Nigeria had forced some 150,000 people to flee to the extremely poor Niger. As of August 31, 2022, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) counted some 350,000 displaced persons and 294,467 refugees in Niger, mainly from neighboring Nigeria, Mali and Burkina Faso.
2015 was the year of the Charlie Hebdo terror attack in Paris, which not only cost the lives of innocent people in France, but led also to violent unrest in Niger, where then president Mahamadou Issoufou had been one of only six African heads of state to participate in the Paris protest march against terrorism, which was not apprecitated by some Muslims in Niger.
These are just a few elements regarding the coup in Niger, which would deserve an entire book with many more (largely dark) chapters.
Late on August 3, 2023 the Niger junta announced to cut all military ties, to severe all military agreements with France. The French government responded that only the legitimate president, Mohamed Bazoum, could take such a step.
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The ousted President Mohamed Bazoum in a 2016 photograph. Photo via Wikipedia/Wikimedia.
Article added on August 4, 2023 at 17:54 Portuguese time. Last corrections and update on August 15, 2023 at 15:39.
