The aura of Russia’s brutal dictator Vladimir Putin as the untouchable strongman in the Kremlin who, like a puppet master, is masterfully playing one faction of the regime against the other, has been destroyed. The short-lived insurrection showed that the Tsar is naked. Vladimir Putin is a paper tiger, his regime a house of cards.
The rebellion was not really a coup — because there was no plan to replace the man in power. Maybe the march towards Moscow was triggered too early and, had Yevgeny Prigozhin waited a few weeks longer, he could have destituted Putin with the help of parts of the military, economic and political elite.
Anyway, almost nobody was ready to risk his life in defense of a potentially doomed dictator. Surely no general or regional governor. To restore his authority, Putin will not only have to kill the traitor Yevgeny Prigozhin, but also to purge the military and civilian leaders who did not support him. The mad dog in the Kremlin who has started a senseless war he cannot win has been substantially weakened.
Without encountering any resistance, being cheered on by the city’s youth, the billionaire businessman and boss of the Wagner Group mercenaries Yevgeny Prigozhin’s managed to seize Rostov-on-Don, the main hub in Russia for supplies to the Russian army fighting Putin’s war against Ukraine.
The Akhmat military force of the Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov was near Rostov-on-Don, ready to intervene in support of Putin, according to Kadyrov, but actually did not engage in fighting with Wagner mercenaries.
Putin infamously came to power fighting Chechen terrorists. Some acts were indeed the work of Chechens, but the FSB was most likely involved in terror attacks too and caught in the act in one case in the city of Rjasan, some 200km from Moscow. FSB men were spotted putting exlosives in a cellar. The Minister of Defense said the following day that a terror act had been prevented. Later, the story was changed into it had only been an exercise. People who tried to investigate the case were killed. In short, from the very beginning of his mandate, Putin has acted as a criminal.
In Rostov-on-Don, Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded to talk to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. But the incompetent and corrupt civilian turned “General of the Army” Shoigu had left the city like a toward — as Putin would do soon afterwards in Moscow, hiding once again in one of his bunkers, in stark contrast with the Ukrainian President Zelensky who had refused to leave Kyiv under Russian assault, declined U.S. President Biden’s offer to be “rescued” and famously said that he does not need a ride, but ammunition.
Incidentally, the famous footage with Prigozhin in Rostow-on-Don shows the mercenary leader sitting between the Deputy Leader of the Military Secret Service GRU and the Deputy Defense Minister of the Russian Federation, having a friendly chat! As a juicy detail, according to the French journalist Alexandra Jousset, who shot the documentary Wagner: l’armée de l’ombre de Poutine, in the night in Rostov-on-Don, Prigozhin felt secure enough to have a nice time with some prostitutes.
Shoigu was not available. Therefore, the mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin made his threat come true and began a march towards Moscow. Once again, resistance towards his advance was insufficient. According to reports, in the Voronezh area, the Wagner Group was attacked by regular Russian troops and downed six helicopters and one plane. The most advanced mercenaries made it up through the cities of Lipetsk and Yelets on the M4 highway, in the end just some 200km away from Moscow.
Vladimir Putin had recorded a statement which aired on TV and, according to sources in Russia, was repeated every half an hour. The dictator called the rebellion a “betrayal” and “treason” and vowed to punish the rebels. He compared the situation to 1917, warned of a civil war and spoke of “a stab in the back of our country and our people”, as in 1917, which led to the loss of large territories; that’s also what some Germans mainly accused the left of regarding the loss of the First World War (Dolchstosslegende). Now in Russia, authorities charged Yevgeny Prigozhin with “inciting an armed uprising”, which meant he could face twelve to twenty years in prison.
Then, another unpredictable, unlikely event happened: Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian dictator, largely considered Putin’s puppet, was said to have brokered a deal at Putin’s request, who refused to talk directly to Prigozhin. Lukashenko came foward with a deal: the mercenaries would stop their march on Moscow, Yevgeny Prigozhin would move to Belarus and not face mutiny charges.
Later, media reports claimed that threats by Russian intelligence agencies against the families of Prigozhin and other Wagner mercenary leaders had preceded the deal. Another explanation is that Prigozhin did not got the expected support from military, political and or economic leaders within the regime he had expected.
Putin later claimed that he had ordered that bloodshed be avoided. He said he had offered Wagner mercenaries to join the regular army or leave the country after their mutiny. And, without presenting any evidence, he blamed both the West and Ukraine for the weekend turmoil.
For months, the war criminal and Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin had attacked the Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Minister of Defence Valery Gerasimov for their incompetence and their alleged refusal to send his mercenaries enough ammunition to fight Ukrainians. Just before the mutiny, Prigozhin claimed that Russian troops had attacked his mercenaries and killed a number of them; the Defense Ministry denied this. Later, Prigozhin called his march on Moscow not a rebellion, but “a march for justice”.
The background was that the Defense Minister Shoigu had ordered all mercenary groups — although, officially illegal, Wagner is by far not the only one — to be integrated in the regular Russian army on July 1, 2023. Therefore, for weeks, there were speculations about an imminent confrontation between the Wagner Group and the regular Russian Army. In addition, in early June already, Prigozhin’s Concord catering firm had lost its lucrative contract with the Russian army.
As a result of the (officially) Lukashenka brokered deal, the Wagner troops withdrew from Voronezh and Rostov-on-Don. The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that the charges against Prigozhin would be dropped and that the Wagner leader would go to Belarus.
It remained unclear what really had happened, and questions remain. But today, June 27, Putin, Lukashenko and Prigozhin all went (separately) public and confirmed the deal. For now, Prigozhin’s blackmail was successful.
It remains strange that Prigozhin’s Telegram channel was never cut off in Russia, not even during the insurrection. It is strange that, for months, he could attack Shoigu and Gerasimov. Prigozhin even said that the Russian reasons for war were a lie: there was no massive agression from Ukraine, NATO did not want to attack Russia; instead, the “special operation” was a way to show how strong the Russian army is and, still according to Prigozhin, it was needed by the oligarch’s, who de facto rule Russia (Prigozhin is part of it, but he omitted this “detail”) to dominate Ukraine too. He also said that Ukraine’s army is now the strongest in Europe. Prigozhin’s Telegram has some 900,000 followers, among the many (younger) Russians.
Incidentally, the animosity between Prigozhin and Shoigu goes back to the war in Syria, where they both were already fierce rivals, infiltrating the groups of each other. Regarding private armies, one must also mention that Shoigu, Russia’s Minister of Defense, has his own militia.
One explanation is that Putin needs the Wagner mercenaries, not just in Ukraine, but also in Syria, black Africa and elsewhere. Furthermore, part of Prigozhin’s business empire are troll firms which are spreading false information, doubt, insecurity and influence elections and major decisions such as Brexit for instance in the UK, the USA, France and several African countries. The Wagner Group has been created with the help of Putin and his regime, even financially, with stakes in the company, which makes money extracting — rather: stealing — gold, diamonds, natural resources, mainly in African countries with dictators and other shady regimes who think they need protection by Wagner mercenaries.
Prigozhin acted not alone. Some time ago, Shoigu had fired Mikhail Mezintsev as deputy defense minister in charge of logistics because he was diverting munitions to the Wagner forces. Prigozhin was happy to hire Mezintsev and make him the Deputy Commander of the Wagner Group. Mikhail Mezintsev is just one famous case. Important was probably, that the Russian general Sergey Surovikin, supposed to be close to Prigozhin, said on TV that Priogzhin should stop his march on Moscow.
Prigozhin has friends, sympathizers and people who have the same ennemies who came from the army or still serve in the army. In addition, within the administration, the business and political elite and the nationalist media, there are such people too. Last, but not least, as a true populist who has served in prison many years, Prigozhin not only can talk to the people who joined him coming from a jail, but he can also connect with ordinary Russians, much like Trump in the USA or Erdogan in Turkey.
Although strategically of no importance, on Russian state TV, the Bakhmut “victory” was presented as the new Stalingrad, and Prigozhin could cash in on it because he took (false) credit for it. According to a NATO estimate, five Russian soldiers are killed for every Ukrainian.
Although enjoying some independence, better equipment and pay, the mercenaries are part of the Russian Defence Ministry and its intelligence agency GRU. The Wagner Group is officially not part of the Russian Army and, therefore, can do some dirty work the Russians officially don’t want to do or do not want to be associated with, although they themselves have committed many war crimes and crimes against humanity. For years, even the existence of the Wagner Private Military Group has been denied.
The rebellion has shown that Putin is not the puppet master (anymore) who can play competing forces within the system against each other. The billionaire Prigozhin has gained too much power and can challenge the Kremlin. Under massive pressure, Putin lost his face and was forced to compromise, drop the charges, despite his recorded video statement which had aired time and again on public TV, which said the exact opposite.
Putin has no direct internet access. He cannot follow the news as we do. People come to him and report what is going on in the world, on Telegram and other news outlets. Hence, Putin lacks information and cannot act swiftly. In addition, like his Defense Minister Shoigu, the man in the Kremlin has no clue about military affairs.
Furthermore, the insurrection showed that the Russian army is overstretched and cannot defend its territory, including the power center Moscow.
Russia also faces the intrusion from Ukraine of two smaller forces made up of Russians. The Freedom for Russia Legion is made up of Russian soldiers captured by Ukraine and now ready to fight Putin. The Russian Volunteer Corps has been formed by Russians living in Ukraine, including an important number of Russian fascists, ready to fight the man in the Kremlin.
More importantly, Russia is now extremely dependent on China, economically and politically. Iran may deliver drones, Venezuela and a few other countries show support too, but they are minor or even insignificant players.
Many questions remain. Will Prigozhin soon fall from the window of a highrise building or find another early death? Can Shoigu and Gerasimov stay in place? What will happen to the many mercenary, paramilitary groups in Russia? Does Putin have the force to integrate them into the regular army? Who will be purged? People within the military intelligence agency GRU? What will the Wagner Group do in Belarus? Attack Ukraine? Unseat Lukashenko or “stabilize” his regime through more terror? Will Putin be mainly occupied with keeping his grip on power in Russia and, therefore, abandon his war effort in Ukraine to stabilize his regime? At the same time, Putin needs the permanent revolution, external ennemies to fight to keep to divert attention from the corruption and incompetence of his regime at home. He has built his reputation and support on stabilizing Russia after the economic and social chaos of the Yeltsin years.
The support for Putin’s regime is fragile, extremely limited. Many within the corrupt elite will ask themselves if Putin remains the right man to lead the country and protect their interests. In 2024, President Putin wants to get re-“elected”.
Some may start to prepare the post-Putin era. This would mean more instability because, if key people of the regime such as Putin fall, there will be companies, real estate, money and other assets worth billions up for grabs. For such an event, it’s good to have a private army on your side.
Whatever happens in Russia, Ukraine needs our help more than ever to kick Russia out and keep her out.
Beauty items at Amazon.com and Amazon.co.uk
Books about Putin from Amazon US and Amazon UK
Photograph of Vladimir Putin in 2018. Президент России Владимир Путин во время интервью журналисту американского телеканала NBC Мегин Келли. Photo copyright: www.kremlin.ru (via Wikipedia/Wikimedia Commons).
Article added on June 27, 2023 at 19:49 German time. Last update on July 4, 2023 at 01:20 German time: Putin refused to talk to Prigozhin. That’s the initial version of this article, based on sources such as Meduza. Lukashenko claims that it was Prigozhin who refused to take phone calls from Putin. Anyway, Lukashenka brokered a deal, according to both Putin and Prigozhin.
