According to a new CBS/Yougov poll, only 30% of U.S. Americans consider tariffs a priority, but 82% care about the economy, 80% about inflation. Tariffs are a tax on imported goods and services and, therefore, will fuel inflation.
Regarding tariffs, Donald Trump has been consistent since the 1980s. His role model is president William McKinley (1897-1901), who not only raised tariffs, but also pursued an imperial agenda, successfully leading the U.S. in the Spanish–American War, annexing Puerto Rico, Guam, the Philippines and Hawaii. Incidentally, McKinley was assassinated by an anarchist in 1901.
All of this echoes not only with Trump’s claim that tariff was the most beautiful word in the dictionary, but also with his claims regarding the Panama Canal, Greenland, the Gaza Strip and Canada; Trump was not just publicly “joking” about Canada as “the 51st state” but, in addition, in a conversation with the prime minister at the time, Justin Trudeau, he questioned the 1908 treaty that demarcates the border between Canada and the USA.
The trouble with Trump is that he is operating with fantasy numbers. He claims that the European Union is imposing tariffs of 39% on average on imports from the United States. However, the actual figures is only 3%.
Trump claims that the figures include the “the combined rate of all their tariffs, nonmonetary barriers and other forms of cheating.” However, it remains unclear how he arrives at the respective figures. Furthermore, the United States are no angels when it comes to tariffs, nonmonetary barriers and other forms of cheating, to use Trump’s vocabulary.
Joe Biden was already pursuing a protectionist policy, bringing companies (partly back) to the USA with subsidies and other measures. His Inflation Reduction Act did not fight inflation, it was largely protectionism. Trump is only accelerating the process, taking a more brutal approach. His erratic policies are destroying a lot of trust and have economic consequences.
Putin has strengthened NATO, which has gained two new members in Finland and Sweden. Trump has further strengthened NATO and the Europeans in that they are now finally taking the 2% military spending target seriously. Ideally, his tariff war could lead to tariffs being dropped or reduced worldwide. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the European Union (EU) and the United States aimed at promoting trade and growth, which never came about, could be relaunched in an improved form. Free trade is the solution.
Trump doesn’t even really have to destroy NATO or international trade, it’s enough to cast doubt on the reliability of the USA as an ally, as a trading and political partner. Trump’s tariffs and trade war will backfire. Trump, Vance, Musk and others are undermining the soft power of the USA in the political, military, economic and financial fields. Confidence in the USA’s respect of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty clause is sinking. The stock markets and the dollar are falling.
Europeans are rethinking the production of weapons, ammunition and a European security architecture, even in the nuclear field.
Trump is shooting himself in the foot. Trump doesn’t understand the international division of labor. That is astonishing for a businessman. U.S. FDI’s in Europe amount to roughly $4 trillion, European FDI’s in the USA to $3 trillion. In comparison, European FDI’s in China are just $300 billion. As during the covid-pandemic, international trade and supply chains are under threat.
If you want Mexicans to stay in Mexico, you ensure that the country is stable and economically prosperous. It will minimize migration and consumers for US products will continue to grow there. Free trade has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty, in China alone. An end to globalization would be a disaster for the world as a whole.
Trump has many bankruptcies behind him. The US deficit and national debt have been out of control for years. Will he bankrupt the USA with his unsustainable, erratic policies? The Trump administration reminds me of Liz Truss.
Trump’s electorate is divided into groups that pursue very different goals: Evangelicals, rust belt MAGA supporters, the ideologues J.D. Vance and Steve Bannon, tech Moguls with a libertarian agenda such as Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and others. Can they work together for four years. Will the narcissists Trump and Musk clash?
Elon Musk is as toxic as Donald Trump. But for Trump, he is uselful as a scapegoat. Musk’s stint as a special government employee, a role limited to a 130-day duration, will soon be over. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), under the direction, is not making a substantial contribution to reducing the deficit. There are 2.3 million civilian employees. If DOGE were to lay off a quarter, i.e. some 600,000 workers, without replacing them, the United States would only manage to save 1% of federal spending.
Because of Musk’s political role and because of stiffer international competition, Tesla sales are in free fall. There are alternatives to Tesla. Buying other vehicles is legitimate, but torching or scratching cars is undemocratic and illegal.
The November 2026 midterm elections will be the first important moment voters can show Trump the red card. The April 1, 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election showed that, despite a roughly $25 million support (New York Times figure), Musk could not undo the liberal 4–3 majority on the court. The Democratic candidate Susan Crawford was able to beat the Republican candidate Brad Schimel by a clear margin of 55% to 45%.
According to The Hill, between the week of January 15 and the week of April 1, Democrats have spent $42.1 million in ad spending and reservations, while Republicans have spent $33.7 million. To summarize: Democrats can still raise large donations and beat Republicans in a swing state.
The 2025 Florida 1st and 6th congressional district special elections took place in safe districts for the GOP. In 2024, the Republicans won the 1st District by 66% to 34%, the 6th district by 66.5% to 33.5%. On April 1, 2025 the election margins had fallen. In Florida’s 1st district, the Republican candidate won with 56.9% to 42.3%, in the 6th district with 56.7% to 42.7%. Still a long way to go, but things could look better for the Democrats in the 2026 midterms.
Trump was able to beat Harris in 2024 presidential election by pointing to the economy, especially inflation. He has to deliver. Tariffs are taxes on domestic consumers, and the United States have a consumption-driven-economy. Mercantilism, isolationism and protectionism in the style of McKinley or the 1920s and 1930s is a recipe for disaster. If the stock markets go down, inflation goes up and a recession threatens, things will get tight in the midterm elections, even for Teflon Trump and his MAGA movement.
For the moment, Vladimir Putin is happy. Russia is not at all on Trump’s long list of countries and territories that he wants to impose tariffs on. The USA and Europe are engaged in a trade war. With allies such as Trump, you don’t need enemies. The proto-autocrat in the White House and the autocrats of Russia and China want to break up the unity of the EU, destroy the EU and NATO, and they want to impose the law of the strongest.
Could it get any better for the autocrats? Yes. Civil war conditions in the U.S., where inflation and public debt are going through the roof because of Trump’s tariffs and his fiscal and financial policies, and where, in 2028, Trump, Vance, Musk, Bannon and others don’t want to accept the end of Trump’s term and/or the election result.
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Donald Trump vs. Lady Liberty. Photograph from the 2017 German carnival of a carnival float made by Jacques Tilly. Photograph © Jacques Tilly.
Article added on April 4, 2025 at 12:54 German time.
