In 2019 already, Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem Imamoglu ermerged as the most dangerous rival for Turkey’s president turned autocrat, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was single-headedly ruining the Turkish economy and impoverished large sections of the population.
Imamoglu is not the typical dull, secular, liberal, center-left CHP politician, but a charismatic one who is also electable for conservative and religious Turks as well as the Kurdish minority.
As in the case of Kurdish mayors, removed from office over terrorism-related charges, replaced with state-appointed officials, President Erdogan and his allies are trying the same dirty tactics again. If they only accused Imamoglu of corruption, his deputy could take over as mayor. However, if terrorism charges are brought against him, he can be replaced by a trustee appointed by the Interior Ministry.
In May 2023, Erdogan managed to steal another election. The next presidential election will only take place in 2028, but the autocrat is already preparing the terrain. Eliminating Imamoglu is just one step. While millions protested against the mayor’s imprisonment, Erdogan celebrated the Kurdish New Year festival Newroz. Turkish television showed him laughing as he lit the fire and jumped over it. He had previously had the festival banned. But now he is hoping for Kurdish votes after the imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan issued a call in February 2025 for the PKK terrorist group to lay down its arms and dissolve itself.
On March 23, 2025 despite his imprisonment, Turkey’s largest opposition party CHP has officially chosen Ekrem İmamoğlu as its candidate for the 2028 presidential election. All of the approximately 1.7 million CHP members in all 81 provinces of Turkey were able to vote. Of these, around 1.6 million voted for Imamoglu as the candidate, according to party leader Özgür Özel. Imamoglu was the only candidate.
Non-party members were also able to cast their vote for İmamoğlu via so-called solidarity ballot boxes. According to Istanbul City Hall, a total of around 15 million people took part in the vote. In the process, 13.2 million people expressed their solidarity with Imamoglu. And that in a country with 85.6 million inhabitants and roughly 64 million voters.
Turkish authorities banned public gatherings and restricted public access to social media. The regime has made the internet extremely slow or blocked it so that the opposition cannot express or organize itself. Nevertheless, in the days since Imamoglu’s imprisonment, millions have protested on the streets around Turkey’s cities for the release of Istanbul’s mayor. Especially young people are fed up with Erdogan’s regime.
In addition, many European mayors show their solidarity with Imamoglu. Among them the inital ones were Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, Juhana Vartiainen, the mayor of Helsinki, and Erik Lae Solberg, the mayor of Oslo. They were joined by the mayors of Barcelona, Gdańsk, Milan, Zagreb and many other cities.
After Imamoglu’s arrest, the Turkish Information Technology and Communications Authority (BTK) massively restricted access to social media and communication platforms and throttled internet speeds across the country. Independent reporting was de facto banned.
Ebubekir Şahin, the chairman of the Turkish Radio and Television Supreme Council (RTÜK) threatened to withdraw licenses from the media: “Sanctions will be imposed on broadcasters that incite the public to protest, provide a platform for commentators who speak like spokespersons for illegal organizations, or disseminate content that insults or even threatens leading state politicians, investigating judges, police officers or security forces.”
Officially, Erdoğan is not allowed to run again in the 2028 presidential election, as the constitution only allows him two terms in office. Already in 2023 he was only able to run because the new presidential system was introduced in 2018 and his previous term was not counted. In 2028, he could simply change the constitution again or force an early election through parliament, which would allow him to run for a third time according to the constitution.
On Wednesday, March 26, the Istanbul city parliament elected the former deputy and long-time confidant of the imprisoned mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Nuri Aslan, as interim mayor until Imamoglu is released from prison.
Because of the country’s strategic position and its weapons industry, both NATO and the European Union have let Turkey get away with far too much. Erdogan has become an autocrat. There are no fair elections. There is no independent justice system. The mass media are largely controlled by Erdogan and his cheerleaders. NATO and the EU are reluctant to take a tougher stance on Erdogan because of several reasons.
In October 2023, the UK government wrote that the Turkish Armed Forces had a total strength of approximately 355,000 active personnel and 380,000 reserves, making it the second largest within NATO (after the United States). In 2025, other sources estimate that Turkey’s defence spending will roughly be comparable to Poland’s ($47 billion vs. $48.7 billion).
During Erdogan’s reign, the Turkish defence industry made great progress. According Turkey is exporting its Bayraktar drones to over thirty countries, including Ukraine. The Bayraktar UAV or drone is made by the private Turkish technology and defence company Baykar. Its chairman of the board and chief technology officer is none other than Selçuk Bayraktar (*1979), the son-in-law of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (RTE). He is being touted as a possible RTE successor both as president and AKP leader.
Turkey is a strategic rival of Russia. At the same time, Erdogan is trying to maintain good relations with Putin. In 2019, the NATO member Turkey bought S-400 defense missile systems, including radars, from Russia, which led the United States to stop the delivery of F-35 warplanes to Turkey; according to the BBC, some 937 separate parts of the F-35 were manufactured in Turkey, about 400 of which were made exclusively there. Back in 2019, the US announced to source these parts elsewhere. In September 2021, Turkey was from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. But now, one can hear that the Trump administration is reconsidering the sale of F-35 to Turkey.
Together with Orban‘s Hungary, Erdogan’s Turkey blocked the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO for some time in order to gain advantages for itself.
At the same time, NATO membership was and is important for Turkey. After the Second World War, Turkey gave up its traditional neutrality because Stalin claimed Turkish territories for the Soviet Union. Therefore, in 1952, Turkey became a NATO member. Today, there are two important NATO air bases in Turkey: Incirlik and Konya.
Erdogan’s ability to talk to all sides can be helpful. The (previous) grain agreement between Ukraine and Russia came about thanks to Turkey’s mediation. At the same time, like France more than once, from de Gaulle to Macron, Turkey is striving for strategic autonomy. Erdogan has even flirted with membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), founded in 2001, led by China and Russia, it includes countries such as India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
Nevertheless, NATO cannot tolerate an autocrat among its ranks. Erdogan must be pushed hard to allow free and fair elections, return to the rule of law and guarantee free media. It is not about throwing Turkey out of NATO, but about forcing Erdogan back onto the path of democracy and showing solidarity with the many detainees, already over 1,400 until the evening of March 25.
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Photograph of Ekrem İmamoğlu by Voice of America (public domain), 2018.
Article added on March 27, 2025 at 10:45 German time. Added at 11:04 “interim mayor”.
