On April 6, 2022 the Knesset member Idit Silman (*1980) left the ruling coalition majority for religion-related decisions and actions by the government. As a consequence, then Prime Minister Naftali Bennett lost the majority in 120-seat Israeli parliament. On November 1, 2022 early elections took place.
Voter participation in the 2022 Israeli legislative election was 70.6%. The Likud party of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu came in first with 23.4% and 32 seats (+2 seats). The strongest party of the coalition governement (which is now history), Yesh Atid of party leader Yair Lapid, ended up with 17% and 24 seats (+7 seats). The biggest winner of the 2022 Knesset election is the far-right Religious Zionist alliance of Bezalel Smotrich with 10.8% and 14 seats (+ 8 seats!). The National Unity of Benny Gantz ended up with roughly 9.1% and 12 seats (-2 seats). The long-term Netanyahu ally, the largely Sephardi (and Mizrahi Haredim) party Shas of Aryeh Deri won 8.24% and 11 seats (+2 seats). The other long-term Netanyahu ally, United Torah Judaism of Yitzhak Goldknopf won 5.9% and 7 seats (unchanged). Yisrael Beiteinu/Beytenu of another far-right politician, the shady Avigdor Lieberman, won roughly 4.5% and 6 seats (-1 seat).
Israel’s Arabs count for 22% of the overall population. The Arab parties could not unite their forces. The party United Arab List aka Ra’am of Mansour Abbas managed to win 4.09% and 5 seats (+1 seat). The list of socialist parties Hadash-Ta’al of Ayman Odeh won 3.76% and 5 seats (unchanged). The Labor party of Merav Michaeli won roughly 3.7% and 4 seats (-3 seats!). Because the left could not unite their forces either, Meretz ended up with 3.16%, just below the 3.25% threshold to enter parliament. Therefore, Meretz lost all its previous 6 seats (-6 seats). The same happened to the largely Arab party Balal, which ended up with 2.9% of the vote, way below the threshold, which meant the party lost its one and only Knesset seat (-1 seat).
There was some criticism within the outgoing coalition that Yair Lapid thought too much about Yesh Atid and its fight for the first place against Netanyahu’s Likud but, in reality, the smaller parties should put most of the blame on themselves. If the left-wing and the Arab parties had formed alliances and united their forces, Meretz and Balal could have made it over the 3.25% threshold, Netanyahu’s comeback could have been prevented. On the other hand, one must not forget that The Jewish Home, an Orthodox and Zionist party, ended up with only 1.2% and no seats (-7 seats!).
What is true is that Lapid could not hold the coalition with the Arab coalition partners together. But it was Labor’s Merav Michaeli who had refused an alliance with Meretz. Anyway, now it’s too late.
In 2022, Israel has moved further to the right. In August, a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute showed that 62% of Jewish Israelis identified themselves as right-wing (among the young between 18 and 25: 70%), in comparison with only 46% in 2019.
To return to power and avoid prison because of charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, former prime minister Netanyahu was and remains ready to ally himself with anyone who is willing to support him. The potential allies called Religious Zionists of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have signaled support for legal changes which could help Netanyahu avoid ending up behind bar. In addition, the parties Shas and United Torah Judaism have been long term allies of the former prime minister. They are likely to help Netanyahu in his legal battle.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s election campaign suggestion that Israel has become politically unstable under the coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid is dishonest. The instability goes back to the collapse of of the Netanyahu-led government in 2018. Subsequently, “Bibi” was ready for pretty much any coalition and any compromise which would prevent his conviction. The result was a far-right government.
Whenever you think that the Israeli government cannot move further to the right, your proven wrong. With Bezalel Smotrich of Religious Zionism and Itamar Ben Gvir of the Jewish Strength Party (Otzma Yehudit), a faction of Religious Zionism, as two likely Netanyahu partners and cabinet members of the next Israeli government, extremism could soon be present at the executive level.
In the long run, the move further to the right could endanger Israel’s security. Roughly 80% of Jews in the United States are voting for the Democrats; it’s the Evangelicals who were and are in support of Donald Trump and the Republicans. The American Jewish population is largely critical of Netanyahu and his religious, right-wing allies. For now, support for Israel is still bipartisan, but criticism is growing.
In the 120-seat Knesset, 61 seats are needed to govern. Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud alone controls 32 seats. Overall, Bibi’s potential coalition of right-wing and religious parties can count on 64 Knesset lawmakers. In addition, one cannot be sure that all members of the Benny Gantz National Unity party are really ready to end up on the opposition benches. When it comes to policies, they are ideologically close to Benjamin Netanyahu. In short, it seems that only the Attorney General could stop Benjamin Netanyahu’s comeback, because the former (and probably future) PM’s legal problems are not over yet.
Books by and about Netanyahu at Amazon USA + Amazon UK + Amazon France
Jewish sheet music and Klezmer sheet music
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2019. Photo: US State Department. Photograph: public domain.
Article added on November 3, 2022 at 21:09 Swiss time.
