Added on October 5, 2015 at 08:35 CET: With 99.23% of the vote counted and only 4 more seats to attribute, Portugal Ahead wins 36.83% and 99 seats, the PS wins 32.83% and 85 seats, BE 10.22% and 19 seats, the Communists 8.27% and 17 seats, the PPD-PSD (to add to Portugal Ahead) 1.51% and seats, PAN 1.39% and 1 seat.
Portugal Ahead will fall short of the absolute majority in parliament of 116 out of the 230 seats. With 4 more seats to be attributed, the ruling coalition controls 104 seats and would have to be enlarged the coalition to continue to govern. The alternative is a minority government with outside support.
The Socialist opposition leader Antónia Costa as well as the Communists and the BE are opposed to the policies of the center-right, ruling coalition. However, the three center-left parties already control a majority, 121 of the 230 seats. They could theoretically form a government. However, the Communists said before the election that they would not join any coalition government.
Article added on October 5, 2015 at 02:02 CET: The Portuguese parliamentary election of October 4, 2015 confirmed the current, center-right coalition as the country’s strongest political force: Prime Minister Coelho wins in Portugal. However, his center-right, electoral alliance Portugal Ahead (PaF) lost its absolute majority in parliament.
The center-right Social Democratic Party (Partido Social Democrata, PSD) which, despite its name, is really a center-right party, and the People’s Party (Partido Popular, PP) were wise enough to form an electoral alliance called Portugal Ahead (Portugal à Frente), whereas the political left remained divided, leading them to a self-inflicted defeat in the 2015 legislative election.
The results of the 2015 legislative election
With 99.2% of the votes counted and only 9 seats still to be attributed, the 2015 parliamentary election confirms the center-right, electoral alliance Portugal Ahead (PPD/PSD, CDS-PP) as the strongest political force. The ruling coalition won 36.85% of the vote and 97 seats in the 230-seat parliament. The center-left Social-Democrats (PS) won 32.38% and 83 seats, the Left Bloc (BE) 10.21% and 19 seats, the Communists (PCP-PEV) 8.25% and 16 seats, the PPD/PSD 1.51% and 5 seats (which have to be added to the ruling coalition), the PAN (Party for Animals and Nature) 1.39% and 1 seat.
Since the ruling coalition lost its absolute majority in parliament, but was clearly confirmed as Portugal’s strongest political force, coalition talks of Portugal Ahead with the Socialists (PS) seem to be likely.
After the election results became clear, Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho (*1964) announced that he was ready to compromise with the Socialists in order to be able to push through additional reforms. He also said that it would be strange if the electoral winner could not govern. The alternatives are an enlarged coalition government or a minority government, which gets outside support from the PS or other parties for specific reforms.
In the previous, 2011 legislative election, the PSD had won 108 seats, the PP 24, the subsequently oppositional Socialists (PS) 74, the Communists (PCP) 14, the Left Bloc (BE) 8 and the Greens (PEV) 2 seats. From 2011 until 2015, the PSD-PP coalition government controlled 132 of the 230 seats in parliament.
Brutal reforms pushed trough and still in a difficult economic and financial situation
Since taking office June 21, 2011 Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho has pushed through brutal structural and other reforms. The bitter medicine consisted of higher taxes, labor market reforms, a reduction of public services, public sector layoffs as well as cuts in social security, pensions and public servant wages. The austerity program has helped Portugal improve its economic and financial situation. As early as in May 2014, Portugal was able to leave the bailout umbrella. This year, GDP is estimated to grow by 1.5 to 1.6%. Since 2013, the unemployment rate could be reduced from 17.5% to 12.4%.
However, this was also the resulted of massive Portuguese emigration. Roughly have a million Portuguese have been forced to leave their country since the 2011 bailout. In addition, the living standard of many Portuguese has been reduced substantially. Portugal remains Western Europe’s poorest nation with some 20% living below the poverty line of €5000 per year. The sovereign debt stands at 125% of GDP. The 2015 budget deficit is expected to be around 3% of GDP, which would be the maximum allowed by the Maastricht Treaty.
All the bad news since the 2011 bailout caused a massive voter dissatisfaction. The austerity measures and the lack of alternatives were one of the reasons for the low voter turnout. Only 56.93% of the 9.3 million Portuguese voters cast their ballot, compared with 58.8% in 2011.
The reforms were the consequence of the Portuguese, sovereign default under the previous, Socialist government. The imminent default lead to a vote of no confidence against the left-wing government on March 23, 2011. In the general election of June 5, 2011 the center-right parties PSD and PP together won a majority and formed a coalition government. The new cabinet implemented reforms, which were the consequence of the three-year, €78 billion EU-IMF bailout greement signed by the Portuguese interim government of José Sócrates on May 16, 2011. The Portuguese loan was split between the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM), the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the IMF.
The Socialists in trouble
José Sócrates had been the incompetent, Socialist prime minister from 2005 until March 2011, before assuming the post of interim prime minister in the caretaker government until the 2011 general election. In November 2014, he had been arrested and accused of tax fraud, money laundering and corruption. In early September 2015, after nine months in detention, he has been released from prison because he accepted home confinement, because he was no longer forced to wear an ankle monitor; however, police will stand in front of his home and make sure that he does not run away. He has not been convicted of any crime yet.
Despite this unwanted publicity, the Socialists under António Costa, the former interior minister under José Sócrates, managed to win some 32.3% of the vote, but fell short of their expectations.
António Costa had accused the ruling, center-right coalition of “excessive austerity” and promised to “ease the tax burden”. At the same time, he tried to keep a moderate profile and promised to abide to the EU budget deficit rules. He could not convince enough Portuguese voters to win back power for the Socialists. António Costa admitted the electoral defeat, but refused to step down as party chairman of the Socialists.
After the election is before the election: Next January, the Portuguese voters will have to chose a new president because, after two mandates, the center-right Aníbal Cavaco Silva will have to step down. Therefore, the parties will stay in campaign modus until early 2016. Let’s hope that the new cabinet will not forget to govern despite the upcoming presidential election.
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