Update added on August 17, 2016 at 09:35 Swiss time: On August 16, for the first time since the Second World War, a foreign military force operated from Iran to intervene in another country. From Hamadan air base, Russia launched air raids on Syrian oppositional forces and Islamic State terrorists. Russia and Iran are allies in Syria where they both support the ruthless Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Once again, President Obama’s catastrophic foreign policy has been exposed.
Update added on August 9, 2016 at 12:08 Swiss time: In August 2016, Iran and Russia made public that Russia will construct eight additional nuclear power plants in Iran. In addition, Russia will lend Iran 2.2 billion euro to finance energy projects.
Moderates remain minority in Iran. As for Obama’s nuclear deal: Iran is not Cuba
Article added on August 9, 2016 at 11:32 Swiss time: Obama’s opening up to Cuba is the right decision. It will transform Cuba, not the United States. However, Iran is not Cuba.
Iran is in support of Syria’s dictator Assad, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic Jihad as well as the Huthi in Yemen. With the sanctions against the Islamic Republic lifted, Iran has additional billions of dollars a year in oil and gas money to spend on its dubious allies and foreign policy adventures.
President Hassan Rouhani and his moderates may be moderates in the Iranian context, in comparison with the likes of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (check the article Iran after the presidential election 2009). However, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and others have reported that the human rights situation in Iran has not improved under President Rohani, who is in office since August 2013. In 2015 alone, 966 people were executed. The highest number since 1989. In 2015, only China executed more people than Iran.
In addition, the monotheistic Bahai remain a persecuted minority, the Sunni minority remains marginalized and homosexuals risk the death penalty.
It is true that President Rouhani appointed women to key positions, including three vice-presidents as well as the governor of the southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan. However, the situation of women in Iran’s society remains unsatisfactory.
It is true that, in September 2015, Hassan Rouhani sent greetings to the Jewish people on the occasion of Rosh Hashana, the Jewish new year. He twittered: “May our shared Abrahamic roots deepen respect and bring peace and mutual understand. L’Shanah Tovah.” The congratulations did however not appear on the Farsi version of Rouhani’s twitter account.
It was right to lift the sanctions against Cuba. But once you have recognized that economic and financial sanctions only favor the rich associated with the regime you want to topple, do not impress ruthless dictators, make them even rally support for their population and hinder the influx of fresh ideas thanks to trade, tourism and other economic relations, why impose sanctions against Russia? They will not make Putin change his policy regarding the Crimea. The United States and the United Kingdom failed to honor their pledge to guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Immediately, they should have sent drones to Ukraine’s Eastern border with Russia to monitor what’s going on. Interestingly, the same day I wrote an email to a friend just stating this, the Ukrainian president issued a statement saying that he will send drones to the Eastern border. Maybe his secret services have reported him my email :): the US and the UK are not the only nations to spy on everyone.
Back to Iran: Ali Khamenei (*1939), the Supreme Leader of Iran, has not moderated his language. For him, the United States remain the “Great Satan.”
The 2016 legislative election in Iran has strengthened the moderates and weakened the conservatives. 217 of the 290 members of parliament have not been reelected. In the new parliament, 38% of the members belong the reform camp, 29% are moderates, 25% are independents, 5% are constitutionalists and 2% represent religious minorities. However, the moderate reformers do not have a majority. In addition, the Guardian Council had rejected the nomination of many reformist candidates. In short, the roughly 55 million Iranian voters could not freely chose their representatives. They had to put up with a pre-selected list. In the end, some candidates on the reform list were not really moderates.
There is a huge gap between the religious-conservative countryside and voters in most of the big cities. At the same time, one can note some positive signs, including the fact that none of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad followers has been reelected. The capital Teheran elected only Reformists. It remains to be seen if the majority of independents will vote with the moderates and, therefore, help to transform the Iranian society.
On the day of the parliamentary election, the 55 million Iranians also had to elect their Assembly of Experts. The 88 members will remain in office until 2024 and, therefore, most likely have to chose the next Supreme Leader.
In Teheran, President Rouhani’s supporters won 15 of the capital’s 16 seats in the Assembly of Experts. Among the people who lost their seat was the hardliner and assembly chairman Mohammad Yazdi. However, in May 2016, the conservative hardliner Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati (*1926) was elected new chairman of the Assembly of Experts, signaling that the hardliners still have the majority. The only comforting fact is that the 90-year old man may not stay alive long enough to have a significant impact.
In short, the power struggle between moderate reformers and conservative hardliners is far from over. It remains to be seen whether Obama’s strategy in Iran will be winning in the long run. So far, the Iranian regime has not changed its foreign policy.
Books about Iran at Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk, Amazon.fr, Amazon.de. Find Persian sheet music.
Hassan Rohani. Photo: Mojtaba Salimi (Wikipedia/Wikimedia).
