Netanyahu moves to the right

Israeli politics have always been volatile. New parties emerge, existing parties merge, politicians change parties and alliances. When Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu sacked his finance and justice ministers on December 2, 2014 and called for a dissolution of parliament, he triggered a new round of repositioning. The political landscape after the early elections scheduled for March 17, 2015 cannot be predicted.

However, it seems likely in the case of a win by Netanyahu and his partners in the next Knesset election, that Israel will move even further to the right. As mentioned in April 2013, with the current Israeli cabinet, peace with the Palestinians cannot be achieved. With a government even further to the right, a two-state solution seems impossible. On the other hand, countries such as France, Spain and Sweden have started to recognize Palestine. The danger is that, in the end, Palestine will be internationally recognized as a state, with Palestinians in their turn not recognizing the State of Israel. This could lead to even more tensions. In this context, Israel’s last war against Hamas was not helpful, especially because far too many civilians were killed, but regime change was never even attempted, leaving Hamas in charge.

The background is complex. On November 23, 2014 the Israeli cabinet decided to bring a new basic law proposal to parliament, defining Israel as the Nation-State of the Jewish People. The bill goes back to an August 2011-initiative by the parliamentarian Avi Dichter of the Kadima party. The day after the cabinet had decided to go forward with the basic law proposal, Justice Minister Tzipi Livni of the small Hatnuah party warned Prime Minister Netanyahu that such a step would endanger the coalition government. Finance Minister Yair Lapid of the party Yesh Atid shared her concerns. Prime Minister Netanyahu accused the two ministers of undermining the government. He even went as far as to insinuate that they had planned a “putsch” against him. In particular, he accused Livni of meeting Abbas against his will and Lapid of running the economy badly.

Prior to the firing of Livni and Lapid, Netanyahu had asked his finance minister to renounce on his most important reform project, to allow young families to buy their first home without having to pay VAT. Netanyahu had changed his mind on the housing subject. He is now in favor of food subsidies instead. That’s a topic on the wish list of the religious Shas party. According to Israeli news reports, in the days before the end of his coalition government, Netanyahu tried to win over religious parties to join his party in order to stay in power without early elections. Anyway, it was the prime minister himself who did everything to end the life of his government. On the other hand, Lapid and Livni themselves were active to win over the religious parties.

Formed in March 2013, the Israeli cabinet has always looked like an unlikely coalition of people who and programs which do not fit together. That may be said of many coalitions around the world, but in the case of the current Netanyahu government, the tensions were too strong to hold it together any longer. After only 20 months in office, Prime Minister Netanyahu called for early elections and the Knesset agreed with no votes against the dissolution.

The basic law proposal is of course not the only dispute dividing the government. For instance, in July 2014, the controversial Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman of the Yisrael Beiteinu party dismantled the Likud-Beitenu faction with Netanyahu. Finance Minister Yair Lapid and Prime Minister Netanyahu have been fighting over the 2015-budget. The list of differences within the government is long. The list of achievements short.

The raise of the electoral threshold to enter parliament is by some observers attributed to Foreign Minister Lieberman. It is seen as an attempt to exclude the Israeli Arabs from the Knesset. However, Arabs represent 20% of the population of Israel. Parties now need at least 3.25% of the vote to enter parliament. Instead of running on separate lists, the small Arab parties now consider running on a joint list.

The threshold of 3.25% is of course the reason why Tzipi Livni joined forces with Labor leader Herzog. Otherwise, she would have difficulties entering the Knesset again. In the past, Livni and Herzog were not exactly friends, but they now assert that they have left their differences behind.

Tzipi Livni at first rightly received praise for not giving in to questionable demands by religious and other parties after her electoral win in 2009. Subsequently, as opposition leader from 2009 to 2012, she made an unconvincing impression a Kadima party leader. In 2009, Netanyahu and his Likud, although they had won one seat less than Kadima, managed to form a government without Livni’s party. Livni’s unsuccessful time as head of Kadima ended in January 2012 when she clearly lost the party leadership battle against Shaul Mofaz with 35.5% against 64.5%. At the end of November 2009, she formed a new party called Hatnuah (The Movement). Unconvincing was her decision to join the Netanyahu government as Justice Minister in December 2012.

Will the coalition of Tzipi Lvini and Isaac Herzog last? The Labor leader is the son of the former Israeli President Chaim Herzog. He is relatively new to his job. He managed to become opposition leader at the end of 2013, when he defeated incumbent Shelly Yachimovich in the party chief battle by 58.5% to 41.5%. Isaac Herzog is clearly in favor of a two-state solution. He criticized Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government for not disarming the Gaza Strip during the Israeli military intervention, for the creation of an entire generation unable to live from their income as well as for his bad relation with US President Obama. The man in the White House is not entirely blameless for the current situation. Nevertheless, Isaac Herzog clearly stated that Netanyahu’s hostility towards Obama endangers Israel’s security.

Livni and Herzog are united in their fight against Netanyahu. Would they be able to successfully run the country was elected at the head of a coalition government?

Herzog and Livni apparently made a deal giving three out of the first twenty seats won in the next election to the Livni camp. In addition, they agreed on a rotation deal in the case of their electoral victory, with Herzog occupying the office of the prime minister in the first two years, followed by Livni afterwards.

The nationalist and religious party Jewish Home of Naftali Bennett has accepted a vote-sharing agreement with Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party. Bennett is a hawk, opposed to the two-state solution. He stands on the right of Netanyahu. As for the prime minister, even before the dissolution of parliament was officially decided, he had already started to look for additional allies among the religious parties. He is a political fox and difficult to remove from power in the next election.

In recent polls, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party has lost roughly half of its seats compared with the last election; down to 9 seats compared with 19 in 2013. Lapid had originally positioned himself as an advocate of the middle class, promising affordable housing. However, once in office, he failed to deliver. Instead, he raised VAT by 1%. Later, he cut child benefits. Many voters won’t be happy about all of this and will punish the party at the ballot box.

The Israeli economy lacks competition in several sectors, which leads to high prices in comparison with EU countries and the US. On October 5, 2014 when the Israeli Noar Narkis, at the time living in Berlin, posted a photograph on Facebook (originally under a pseudonym) comparing prices in Germany and Israel of a chocolate pudding with whipped cream, he received a huge feedback. As he said himself, the problem in Israel are not just food prices, but also the cost of housing, education, healthcare and welfare. In 2011, the level of housing prices had even led to widespread protests in Israel. They involved hundreds of thousands of people who protested against the continuing rise in the cost of living in general.

Since the protests have not led to a general improvement of the situation, the return of Moshe Kahlon into the political arena is of particular importance. The former communication minister (2011-2013), who deregulated the cell phone industry, saving consumers a lot of money, is a former Likud member. On November 27, 2014 he created a new party called Kulanu (All of Us in Hebrew). A recent poll estimates Kulanu to win around 10 seats in the March 2015 parliamentary election. Kulanu could take away voters from Netanyahu’s Likud. Moshe Kahlon is positioning himself as the advocate of the middle-class, fighting for more economic equality as well as for a peace deal. During his time in office from 2011 until 2013, he was the most popular minister of the cabinet. He is a serious new threat to Netanyahu, Lapid and others.

Yet News reported that Kahlon said: “When we needed to make peace with the largest Arab states, we did. When we needed to concede – we conceded” He added: “My friends and I will not miss a chance for peace. I believe we must act on that front. The diplomatic siege is not good for us, and we will act on it.” Less convincing in this context is his voter surplus agreement signed with Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu. Lieberman is neither in favor of a two-state solution nor in favor of an end to new Israeli settlements in occupied territories.

Netanyahu moves to the right. In fact, he moves even further to the right, leaving in the cold centrists such as Tzipi Livni and Yair Lapid. Netanyahu and his future, yet unknown, but most surely right-wing and religious coalition, will have to ensure that Israel won’t be isolated in the future.

Or will the center-left finally win again? Herzog and Livni alone won’t be able to win a majority. In a recent poll, they are credited with up to 24 seats. They will need a series of additional allies to win a 61-majority in the Knesset. One of the key questions is whom will Moshe Kahlon support? The right and religious parties or the center-left? Will he become the new kingmaker? What will happen to Yair Lapid?

Benjamin Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett are together polling at around 37 to 40 seats. Yisrael Beyteneu may end up with 10 seats. They would need less additional coalition partners than Herzog and Livni. If they can win over the smaller religious parties, the center-left will have no chance. United Torah Judaism is polling at 8, Shas at 6 seats.

A lot can happen until March 2015. The Israeli economy is slowing down. New protests against rising living costs cannot be excluded. Even if they should only take place in the social networks, the could influence the election result. The current tensions between Israeli and Palestinians could result in more suicide and other attacks on Israeli citizens.

Although the incumbent Netanyahu has lost popularity – in a recent poll, 60% of voters were opposed to his re-election – , he remains the favorite to become the next prime minister. Nevertheless, Labor has become for the first time in many years a serious contender. A possible alliance with the main opposition party can no longer be viewed as a suicide mission. In the end, this situation may just help the religious parties to ask for more money and attention to their wishes. March 17 will be the day of truth for all sides.

Books by and about Benjamin Netanyahu at Amazon US, Amazon UK. Jewish sheet music. Klezmer sheet music.

An early biography of Netanyahu by Ben Kaspit and Ilan Kfir: Netanyahu: The Road to Power. 1998, 256 pages. Order the hardcover book from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk.

Article added on November 14, 2014 at 15:38 CET. [wrong date? This article was probably added on December 14, 2014]