Added on March 15, 2013: Today, the political parties Yesh Atid (19 parliamentarians) and Jewish Home (12 parliamentarians) have signed a coalition agreement with Likud-Beytenu (31 parliamentarians). The new cabinet will be sworn in early next week. Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua party with its 6 Knesset seats is also part of the coalition of 68 parliamentarians who have an absolute majority in the 120-member Knesset.
Article added on March 14, 2013 at 19:02 Swiss time: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not yet been able to officially present his new coalition government because of a last minute dispute over the symbolic title of deputy prime minister for Naftali Bennett. However, the official deal seems to be imminent.
Have Yair Lapid, Naftali Bennet and Tzipi Livni not resisted the temptation of power? Will they be able to alter the course of the new Netanyahu government?
It seems so when it comes to drafting the ultra-Orthodox. Israel’s ultra-Orthodox will no longer be part of the ruling coalition. The secular Jew Yair Lapid as well as Naftali Bennett have made sure that the ultra-Orthodox seminary students will no longer profit from draft exemptions. Welfare subsidies to the ultra-Orthodox may be less generous in the future.
When it comes to peace negotiations, Tzipi Livni, who was the first to jump on the bandwagon, although now in a totally different position than after the 2009 election, has vowed to restart serious negotiations with the Palestinians. However, Prime Minister Netanyahu and (former?) Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman are not keen on a fair peace treaty. The prefer to postpone the matter. The new coalition member Naftali Bennett flatly opposes the creation of a Palestinian state.
In 2009, Tzipi Livni was not ready to form a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox. She stood firm on her principles and earned respect for it. In 2013, she has no problems being part of a cabinet without the ultra-Orthodox. However, the coalition includes the parties of Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett, who are not any better regarding the Palestinian question, regarding settlements and a durable two-state solution. In 2009, she represented the strongest party in the Knesset. In 2013, her new party, Hatnuah, represents only 6 seats. She now joins a largely nationalistic government out of a position of weakness. This makes her one of the worst Israeli negotiators ever. And she shall be in charge of restarting negotiations with the Palestinians?
During the election campaign, Tzipi Livni insisted on bringing the Netanyahu government down. Now she joins it as justice minister. Livni wants a two-state solution as soon as possible. Bennett wants to annex most of the West Bank; he is not against restarting peace talks because he thinks that they will not lead to a final-status agreement, at least not as long as Netanyahu and Lieberman are in key positions. Will Yair Laid be able to change the balance of power within the cabinet on this matter?
The new coalition will control an absolute majority of 68 seats in the 120-member Knesset. For the first time in a decade, the ultra-Orthodox, which make up some 10% of Israel’s population, will be sidelined. Will they have to face reality now?
Most of the ultra-Orthodox do not work for a living, they just study the Holy Scriptures full time. They do not pay taxes. They do not serve in the army. But they profit from state subsidies – not just for religious schools and seminaries – as well as from child allowances. They profit from the protection from the army, especially while settling on Palestinian land. The new Israeli coalition government seems at least ready to deal with this unsustainable situation.
However, when it comes to a possible peace deal with the Palestinians, the government seems at best to be divided. Nationalistic hawks still dominate. If you want to make sure that you get a fair peace deal, you should negotiate as long as you are in a strong position. Some Israeli seem to think that a power shift will never take place, that they can postpone a two-state solution forever. This strategy may backfire one day.
How will the new coalition deal with Yair Lapid’s claims for affordable housing, lower food prices and other social demands? Yair Lapid will be the new finance minister. He will have little excuses in the next election.
Once again, Benjamin Netanyahu should that he is a shrewd politician, flexible to the point to stay in power. Legally, he just had another two days left to form a new coalition. That deadline past, Yair Lapid and Yesh Atid would have taken over that role. However, the rising star of Israeli politics was not (yet) ready to become prime minister himself. He was not keen on new elections either.
Is the coalition solution convincing? Will Lieberman come back as foreign minister or end up in jail? Last but not least, let’s not forget that Netanyahu and his former chief of staff, Bennett, dislike each other. Will the new government last the full term?
Books by and about Benjamin Netanyahu:
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