The “ Tsainami ” has swept the KMT away in Taiwan. The opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen has been elected President of the Republic of China, better know as Taiwan. In addition, her Democratic Progressive Party (DDP) won a clear majority in parliament.
In the Taiwanese presidential election 2016 of January 16, Tsai-Ing wen won 56.1% of the vote, clearly ahead of Eric Chu Li-luang of the now ousted Kuomintang (KMT) with only 31% and James Soong of the People First Party with 12.8%. Voter turnout reached only 66.3% compared with 74.4% in 2012, when the Kuomintang candidate Ma Ying-jeou managed to be reelected and to beat Tsai Ing-wen with 51.5% against 45.6%, with James Soong finishing third with only 2.8% of the vote. Ma could not represent himself again in 2016 due to the constitutional two-term limit in Taiwan.
2016 is the first time the DDP has managed to win over 50% of the vote. In the 2002 election, Chen Shui-bian of the DDP had finished first, but with only 39.3%, only slightly ahead of the independent James Soong with 36.8% and 23.1% for the KMT candidate Lien Chan. Those general elections should already have been a warning for the nationalists. However, they probably thought that that was only an “accident” and that they could continue to dominate the country as in the decades before, although no longer living in a dictatorship.
In the 2016 parliamentary election, the Taiwanese voters punished the KMT, especially for the party’s uncritically close ties to mainland China; the Taiwanese business elite seemed more interested in making money in Communist China than in preserving Taiwan’s independence and democracy.
In 2015, mainland China was by far Taiwan’s most important trading partner, with imports worth $32.7 billion coming from China and $1.1 billion from Hong Kong and exports worth $53.9 billion going to China and $37.8 billion to Hong Kong. Overall, Taiwanese exports contributed some 13% to Taiwan’s GDP in the first half of 2015. In addition, Taiwan is a major investor in Communist China, which in return also heavily invests in Taiwan. The island is more and more dependent on mainland China, with roughly 40% of its export going to China and Hong Kong.
In 2015, GDP growth in Taiwan could have slowed down to under 1%. However, the unemployment rate has not heavily been affected; the unemployment rate remains low with roughly 3.7%. The public debt stands at around 37% of GDP. On the other hand, the ageing population is – as in many European countries – a challenge for the system.
The DDP of the newly-elected President Tasi Ing-wen won a majority of 68 seats in the 113-seat house of parliament, an increase of 28 seats compared with 2012. The ousted KMF came in second with only 35 seats; minus 29 seats! The newly founded New Power Party, which was created in context of the Sunflower Student Movement in 2014, managed to win 5 seats in parliament, becoming Taiwan’s third largest party. The People First Party finished fourth, maintaining its 3 seats won in 2012. The Minkuotang Party, founded in 2015 by the former Kuomintang parliamentarian Hsu Hsin-ying, now lead by Huang Kuo-chang, won 1 seat. The center-right Non-Partisan Solidarity Union of founding chairwoman Chang Po-Ya won also 1 seat.
After the election, through its news agency Xinhua, mainland China warned Taiwan of moving towards independence: “We hope Tsai can lead the DDP out of hallucinations of Taiwan independence, and contribute to the peaceful and common development between Taiwan and the mainland.” China’s Foreign Ministry made clear that there is only one China, that the mainland and Taiwan both belong to one China, that China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity should not be broken up.
President-elect Tsai Ing-wen had repeatedly said that she wanted to maintain the status-quo, probably meaning – although never clearly specified – that de facto independent Taiwan should stay de-facto independent, without pushing for full, internationally recognized independence as demanded by some in her party.
President Tsai Ing-wen was born in 1956. The former law professor had studied at the National Taiwan University in Taiwan, the Cornell University Law School in the USA and the London School of Economics in the UK. From 1993 onwards, she had several governmental positions within the KMT government. Under DDP President Chan Shui-bian, she served as Minister of the Mainland Affairs Council. She only joined the DDP in 2004, becoming Vice-Premier under Premier Su Tseng-chang until 2007. The following year, she was elected DDP chairwoman, after the party’s defeat in the 2008 general election. She resigned as party chairwoman in 2012 after her unsuccessful presidential bid. She returned to head the DDP in 2014 and, two years later, managed to become president of Taiwan, one of the rare Asian women to rise to the top job without family connections. She has been described as both charismatic and pragmatic. She is an unwed woman living with two cats, remaining pretty silent about her private life.
In addition to advocating to maintain the status quo in Chinese-Taiwanese relations, Tsai Ing-wen stands for reforms of the Taiwanese pension, elderly health-care and food safety system. In general, she is for expanding the welfare state, including a rise of the minimum wage. In contrast to her predecessor, she favors a diversification of Taiwan’s exports, preferring stronger U.S.-Taiwan trade – notably thanks to economic liberalization – to more cross-Strait trade with mainland China. She wants Taiwan to be part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP) and stresses the need for more participation of Taiwan in free trade agreements (FTAs).
A political change was needed in Taiwan. However, only time will tell whether she and her party are up to governing Taiwan. Will the Tsainami be successful?
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Article added on January 17, 2016 at 19:05 CET; last update on January 18, 2016 at 11:13 CET
