Surprise, surprise. The Turkish opposition is alive. If President Erdogan should really lose the capital Ankara AND his hometurf city of Istanbul, it could signal the beginning of his end—in a distant future, but not at the end of time.
84% of the 57 million Turkish voters went to the polls in the local elections. The cities of Ankara and Istanbul have both been governed by AKP members for the past 25 years. Erdogan’s political career began in 1994 as mayor if Istanbul. According to Germany’s Süddeutsche Zeitung, today, the greater Istanbul area accounts for some 40% of the Turkish GDP. It would be a huge PR desaster for Erdogan to lose this economic powerhouse, and it would limit Erdogan’s and the AKP’s ability to hand out lucrative contracts to friends and family. Furthermore, the new mayor could investigate what has happened in the city in the past. Who bribed whom?
The Turkish inflation stands at around 20%, the unemployment rate is officially 13.5%. Interest rates are high. The Turkish Lira has lost a lot of its value towards the euro and the dollar. Many ordinary people are fed up with the economic situation, and economic circles fear about their companies. The largest Turkish industrial employer associations called for economic AND political reforms. It’s the economy, stupid!
The fact that, in Istanbul, the candidate of the social-democratic CHP and the nationalist İyi parties, Ekrem İmamoğlu, could come from behind in the exit polls and overtake the AKP candidate by 25.000 votes shows that there are still some reasonable, independent people in key positions—such as the Istanbul electoral commission—left. It will be difficult—although of course not impossible—for the AKP to cheat now as partly was the case in previous elections. So far, in Ankara and in Istanbul, the AKP is contesting the election results. If the decision will be transparent, free and fair, there is some hope for future free elections in Turkey left.
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The German FAZ newspaper reported that the AKP candidate for the job of mayor of Istanbul, Binali Yildirim, said that the number of invalid votes in Istanbul was unusually high: 319,000. His opponent, the oppositional CHP candidate Ekrem Imamoglu, was only 25,000 votes ahead. The CHP was quick to respond that, in the 2014 local elections in Istanbul, won by the AKP candidate, the number of invalid votes was 290,000. Furthermore, AKP and CHP members were present in all polling stations to supervise to election. A quick recount in Istanbul’s Kadiköy district in April 2019 produced 450 additional votes for the CHP candidate, the FAZ reported.
Is Erdogan’s end imminent? No, of course not. He is the (almost) all powerful president. His AKP-MHP coalition has an absolute majority in parliament. Erdogan himself as well as his regime are corrupt and will do (almost) anything to stay in power to avoid prison because, if the rule of law with an independent judiciary should be established, President Erdogan and several of his family members and friends as well as other key AKP people would end up in jail.
There is only limited free speech, no free press, no rule of law, but the leader is “naked”. Although pretty much only Erdogan was visible on TV in the run-up to the 2019 local election which, therefore, was not fair at all, the result for the AKP is unconvincing. You cannot fool all the people all the time. Many Turks and especially the oppositional leaders can see that Erdogan can be beaten if they unite their forces.
And that is what happened. The Kurdish minority party HDP did not present candidates in Istanbul, which is de facto Turkey’s largest Kurdish city; according to estimations 2 to 4 million Kurds live in the city with a total of some 15 million people. The Kurdes helped the CHP beat the AKP. At the same time, Erdogan’s AKP remained the most important Turkish political force, but—as in the last national election—it needed the support of the ultra-nationalist MHP. Despite this alliance, the four most important Turkish cites (as well as many other important cities) were won by the opposition.
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Further readings: Erdogan has not won the 2018 election.
President Erdogan. Photo: Wikipedia / Wikimedia / public domain.
Article added on April 3, 2019 at 20:48 Berlin time.
