Democracies are not strong because we are all good democrats but because democracies (normally) offer prosperity. If they can’t provide this anymore, the enthousiasm for democracy vanished. Already at the moment of the 2008 financial crisis, our democracies were partly rotten. This does not mean that they will necessary fall, but that they need renewal, which normally happens through the process of elections.
During the financial crisis of 2008 and the following years, people were afraid that the system could collapse. The majority kept largely quiet although they saw that (almost) no important banker ended up in jail. Frustration and anger increased.
In early 2020, the Covid19 pandemic struck the world. Instead of learning to live with the virus, keeping open whatever you can keep open when you stick to rules — which have to be enforced! — such as social distancing, wearing maks and — later, when they became available — getting vaccine shots, too many countries relied on full or partial lockdowns.
Lockdowns do not kill the virus, they only kill the economy. Supply chains were interrupted, borders, airlines, hotels, etc. were partially or fully shut down. Globalization was blamed for the misery.
In reality, globalization, (more or less) free trade has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty. Globalization, international research allowed us to develop vaccines and distribute them. Because of ill-guided policies mainly in the rich countries, now far too many mainly in developing countries are falling back into poverty.
Putin’s escalation of the senseless — because unwinnable — war against Ukraine made things much worse. Last, but not least because Ukraine and Russia (sanctioned) account for almost 30% of worldwide wheat, 19% of corn and 80% of sunflower oil exports. The result will be famine, instability, riots and maybe revolutions.
The 1789 French revolution was partly caused by a food crisis. Rising wheat prices in Paris triggered bread riots. Today, our lockdown policies with the interruption of supply chains and, most importantly in recent week, Putin’s war, disrupt the wheat market. Prices inreased sharply. Especially the third world will suffer.
Even in France, where the 2022 presidential election will take place in two rounds on April 10 and 24 (German article), French voters are primarily concerned about their dwindling purchasing power (pouvoir d’achat) due to inflation. The extreme right candidate Marine Le Pen has has softened her image. Already around 2011, long before Macron in 2016/17, she tried to position herself as “neither on the right, nor on the left”. In 2017, Marine Le Pen clearly lost the presidential debate against Emmanuel Macron. But 2022 is not 2017. She does not have to be competent — which she isn’t anyway. It’s enough to be friendly and repeat her main slogans about security and crime, immigration and purchasing power. Earlier than all other important candidates, she sensed that the famous pouvoir d’achat would be the key concern for voters. For some good and for some bad reasons, a majority of voters is fed up with President Macron. Let’s hope they will use their brain when voting because, despite her moderate rhetoric, Marine Le Pen still represents the far right. She is Putin’s useful idiot: anti-EU, anti-NATO.
After two years, people are fed up with pandemic measures. In too many countries, we have not learned to live with the virus. People do not realize that we were lucky. Covid19 is not as dangerous as Ebola. And in a very short time, powerful vaccines were developed. But in the German speaking countries, far too many people have an irrational aversion against vaccines. At the same time, they believe in the pseudo-scientific homepathy (keyword: Globuli). Fun fact: the Greens, who envision themselves as the party of science, have/had a strong “globuli” faction in their ranks.
Only if we’re lucky and new Covid19 variants will get weaker and weaker, less harmful to humans, the pandemic will soon be over. However, most of the world has not been fully or at all vaccinated yet. A powerful new variant against which a new vaccine first will have to be developed may just be around the corner. The rich countries have acted in a selfish way.
CCP China has been relying on its own vaccine which, unfortunately for them, is of relatively poor quality. The zero-covid strategy has failed. As at the beginning of the pandemic, the credibilty and legitimacy of the Communist Party and its dictator for life, Xi Jinping, are on the line again.
CCP China is a brutal one-party dictorship which has implemented a surveillance state. Nevertheless, as in democracies, if the regime cannot guarantee a rising standard of living, a certain prosperity, people may rebel one day. If China should be affected by food shortages, the going could get rough for the CCP.
Putin has evolved from reformer to autocrat to brutal dictator. He controls the state and private mass media, has cracked down on civil society, social media and any dissent but, in the 21st century, not even Putin and his regime can fully control information. The dictator may have believed half of his own propaganda regarding Ukraine and is now forced to realize that even ethnic Russians in Ukraine do not welcome his soldiers with open arms. The Western sanctions will severly harm the Russian economy. The West can and must outspend Russia in the war against Ukraine. Russia is poor and cannot compete with the EU and the USA.
The Russian people are more used to hardship than people in the West. The “anti-Nazi” propaganda against Ukraine — led by a Jewish president who lost family in the Second World War — is bearing fruit. The masses are ill-informed. But at one point, the sanctions will cripple Russia’s economic and financial system to the point that it may collapse. Younger, internet savvy Russians can get independent, Western information. Last, but not least, some of the Russian elite may rebel because they do not want to go down with Putin. Regime change is needed. But it will have to come from inside Russia. However, in addition to helping Ukraine militarily, the West should hack Russian TV and internet and have Russian sport, film stars and other celebrities tell the Russians in Russian what is going on. 10-second clips here and there can serve as eye-openers.
Not only Putin’s Russia and CCP China could get away with almost anything until now but, in addition, Saudi Arabia could spread intolerance through Wahabbism, starting after the 1979 Mecca Grand Mosque seizure. Russia, China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and others are trying to buy influence. They have to be stopped. In addition, democracies must unite. NATO has to expand beyond the Transatlantic and include countries such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and many others who stick to democratic principles.
We still waste natural resources as if there was no tomorrow. Pollution is one of our main problems. Climate change is just one element; the climate has and will always change, man-made or not. Plastic ends up in the sea. Energy saving is still not taken seriously.
The 2008 financial crisis has created a dependency on debt and low interest rates. The pandemic has increased the distribution of “free money”, supply chains have been interrupted, the planners are back. In addition, Putin’s war has made things worse. One element with global implications are food shortages which will cause famines in poor countres and, therefore, lead to political instability.
Will we witness the perfect storm in 2022, as in France in 1789? Are we doomed? Not necessarily. This is a wake-up call. In two decades, China’s economy could be twice the size of the U.S. American one, and the CCP could command a much more powerful military. Putin’s war is at least partly a reaction to the dictator’s inner-Russian difficulties. This is a fight between democracy and authoritarian rule. This is not a time to dither, hesitate and appease. Swift, bold and decisive action is needed.
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Photograph on top: wheat. 2005 photograph by Bluemoose. Source: Wikimedia. Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.
Article added on April 8, 2022 at 16:03 Swiss time. Word “bold” added at 18:05.
