The West must outspend Russia in Ukraine. The military might of the United States, the United Kingdom, France and other nations is beyond reach for Putin’s regime. The West can and must deliver rockets, tanks, planes, helicopters, ammunition, intelligence and more to Ukraine to defend herself.
I did not believe in a full scale war by Putin against Ukraine because Russia cannot win this war. Occupy a country of 600,000 km2 — roughly twice the size of Germany — with some 40 million people who are largely and strongly anti-Putin and who have millions of friends and families in Russia and vice-versa is madness. Putin cannot destroy Kyiv aka Kiev which he considers the cradle of the Russian Empire. Even if Putin’s soldiers could occupy all major cities in Ukraine, they could neither control nor hold them, neither directly nor indirectly via a puppet regime in Kyiv. A partisan war against Ukrainians could last “forever”.
Although an invasion seemed improbable to me, one could not fully trust Putin and his judgment. Therefore, I stressed the importance of dissuasion: the cost of an invasion must largely outweigh the benefits of a military intervention.
On February 20, four days BEFORE Putin escalated the war (started in 2014) against Ukraine, I tweeted (just typos corrected and tags removed): „Instead of applause, offer military equipment and soldiers. Western military ships should be in Odessa, military personnel and diplomats in key cities near the border with Russia and Belarus. At least one EU, UK, US president, prime minister, minister of foreign affairs should be in Kiev at any time, relaying each other.“
The West almost invited Putin to invade Ukraine by saying what they would NOT do. Biden made one of his terrible gaffes by suggesting that a “minor” incursion into Ukrainian territory would not meet the same response as a major invasion. Secretary of State Blinken was quick to correct the mistake and Biden corrected himself too, but damage was already done.
I largely prefered Biden’s other gaffe when he spoke the truth (which was not in his script) in Warsaw on March 26: “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” A White House official quickly corrected the statement by suggesting that President Biden was “not discussing Putin’s power in Russia or regime change.” The official, who was not authorized to comment by name and spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Biden’s point was that “Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region.” Secretary of State Blinken made a similar statement later.
But regime change in Russia is needed. It is true that NATO cannot provoke it by a direct military intervention. However, clear signals must be sent to the siloviki, oligarchs, generals and other key figures in Russia that THEY must sideline Putin. Just removing the dictator will not be enough. Free and fair elections are needed. This supposes a true democracy where the rule of law is guaranteed, political prisoners are freed. Russia needs a flourishing civil society. The press must be free. Free speech must be reestablished. This may not happen overnight, but it can happen if tough sanctions prevent all energy exports — oil, gas and coal account for 50% of Russia’s state revenues. Putin cannot withstand Western pressure for long. The West must outspend Russia when it comes to military and other aid to Ukraine. Sanctions on Russian energy exports must be complete.
Putin has united the West, the EU, NATO and Ukrainians. Even if it is true that, according to the independent Levada institute, Putin’s approval rating went up from 71% to 83% within the month of his “special military operation” in Ukraine, this will not last once the full extent of the military and humanitarian disaster in Ukraine becomes known to the wider public and the consequences of the sanctions fully hit the Russian economy, which is not short from collapse.
Despite a majority in parliament, the Ukrainian President Zelensky was not at his best (euphemism) in peacetime, e.g. in his fight against corruption. But in wartime, the former popular TV comedian shows that he is an efficient communicator who understands the media and is ready to fight, staying in the Ukrainian capital. He enjoys the support of the clear majority of Ukrainians. They know what they are fighting for, whereas many Russian soldiers look pretty lost and many were used as cannon fodder in an ill-prepared military operation. Putin and his military leaders falsely assumed that Ukraine would capitulate within a few days.
Read the book by Catherine Belton: Putin’s People, 2021, 656 pages. Order it from Amazon.co.uk, Amazon.com.
Books about Putin from Amazon US Books about Putin from Amazon UK
Top of the page: photograph of Vladimir Putin in 2018. Президент России Владимир Путин во время интервью журналисту американского телеканала NBC Мегин Келли. Photo copyright: www.kremlin.ru (via Wikipedia/Wikimedia Commons).
Article added on April 3, 2022 at 00:52 Swiss time.
