The newly elected, center-right president of Portugal Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa presents himself a man of national unity
On January 24, 2016 the Portuguese voters took a clear decision. In the first round of voting, the law professor, Expresso newspaper co-founder and director, well-respected television commentator, former minister and former PSD-leader, Member of Parliament and center-right candidate Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (*1948) managed to win an absolute majority of 52% to become Portugal’s next president. However, voter turnout reached only 48.8%.
During the electoral campaign, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa had presented himself as a candidate of compromise, who would respect the Socialist minority government. After the electoral win, he spoke of national unity. He said that Portugal could not afford political animinosities.
The political right was united, whereas the political left was divided. No less than ten candidates wanted to become head of state. The independent candidate, professor and rector of the University of Lisbon, António Sampaio da Nóvoa (*1954), finished second with almost 22.9% of the vote; he had only the support of the far-left parties LIVRE and PCTP/MRPP.
Despite its success by making the Socialist Costa prime minister, the political left in Portugal remains deeply divided. The Left Bloc candidate, the sociologist and European MEP Marisa Matias (*1976), finished third with 10.1%. All other candidates won less than 5% of the vote.
After two consecutive mandates, the center-right President Anibal Cavaco Silva (PSD; *1939) could not represent him due to constitutional limitations. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will succeed him on March 9, 2016.
The Socialists, Communists and other left-wing parties hate each other. Therefore, it came as a big surprise that they managed to put their divisions aside and form a center-left Portuguese government, sworn in in November 2015. It is a Socialist minority government, which enjoys the support of the other left-wing parties in government, including politicians who want to exit the eurozone, the EU and Nato. Therefore, center-right President Anibal Cavaco Silva had asked the Socialist Costa prime minister to ensure him that those politicians would not become part of his cabinet and that he would respect Portugal’s EU and Nato membership, keep Portugal in the eurozone and respect the 3% Maastricht budget deficit criteria.
In Portugal, the president is elected for five years and has more than just representative powers. He can for instance choose the prime minister, who has to be confirmed by parliament. He is the Supreme Commanded of the Armed Forces. He can veto new laws and decrees of the government, dissolve parliament and call for early elections. This is relevant given the instable Socialist minority government, which could quickly come under pressure from the far-left in parliament if it had to implement austerity measures.
In the October 2015 election, the previous, center-right government Coelho was confirmed as the strongest political force in Portugal, but lost its absolute majority in parliament. It became a victim of its harsh reforms implemented in recent years.
In 2016, the new, current Socialist government said its budget deficit would be around 2.6% of GDP, well below the 3% Maastricht criteria. At the same time, the new government has already implemented (or at least pledged to) raise the minimum wage from 505 Euro to 530 Euro, increase government employee salaries, lower again government employee working hours from 40 to 35 hours per week, reverse public services cuts, re-introduced 4 public holidays abolished by the previous government, lifted the freeze on pensions and promised to ease tax burdens; VAT had increased from 13% to 23% in recent years.
In 2015, GDP growth was 1.7%. According to the Portuguese government, the unemployment is expected to fall to 11.2% in 2016; in 2013, it was above 17.5%. The public debt will stay above 120% of GDP. Economic growth is forecast to reach 2.1% in 2016.
Will president-elect Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa make sure that the center-left government will not endanger the financial and economic stability of Portugal?
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Photograph of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in 2018. Source Wikipedia / Wikimedia Commons.
Article added on January 25, 2016 at 11:42 CET.
