On October 6, 2019 some 9.34 million registered Portugese voters were asked to elect their new parliament. Voter turnout reached 54.5%, slightly down from the 2015 legislative election when 55.8% of all voters went to the polls.
According to preliminary results — the winners of the 4 seats of the Portuguese overseas territories are not known yet —, prime minister Costa is the winner of the Portuguese legislative election 2019. His Socialist Party (PS) managed to win 36.65% of the vote and at least 106 seats (2015: 86 seats). It is the first time since 2009 that the PS managed to become the largest party in Portugal.
With 106 parliamentarians, Prime Minister Costa is still far from the 116 seats he would need in the 230-member parliament for an absolute majority. Nevertheless, he remains in the drivers seat because his left-wing, extra-governmental allies, Bloco de Esquerda (BE), Partido Comunista Português (PCP) und Os Verdes (Green Party) bring him clearly over the majority line. The center-left, animal rights party PAN managed to increase its seats from 1 to 4 with now 3.28% of the vote. Three small parties managed to win one seat each, among them the populist, right-wing party Chega (Enough!) as well as the center-left Livre.
The center-right PPD/PSD finished second with only 27.9% and 77 seats, its worst result since 1983. Under the former prime minister Coelho, the PSD had once pushed through brutal, but necessary reforms which allowed his successor, Prime Minister Costa, to pursue a more moderate line. The other historic, center-right party, the CDS-PP, lost 13 of its 18 parliamentarians and ended up with only 5 seats; the CDS-PP party leader, Assunção Cristas, immediately stepped down after the defeat. The right did not only pay tribute to its harsh austerity program, it also paid a price for its lack of unity.
All five center-left parties together control 142 seats in the 230-member parliament. However, the Bloc of the Left (BE) lost moderately and ended up with 9.67% and 19 seats, the Communists (PCP) suffered important losses and finished with 6.46% and 12 seats (17 in 2015!). BE and PCP had supported the minority government of Prime Minister Costa in parliament without being rewarded by voters in 2019. Prime Minister Costa will still need their support in the new assembly.
Will the — so far successful — formula of a minority government remain unchanged?
For many observers (me included), the Costa minority government seemed to be a suicide mission. The collaboration of Portugal’s center-left and extreme-left parties seemed doomed from the start because they have been quarelling for decades. Nevertheless, with their help, Prime Minister Costa managed to implement a his moderate agenda. He moved away from the brutal austerity program pushed through by his predecessor, profiting from the hard work done beforehand, while respecting the Maastricht criteria, despite undoing some pension cuts, cancelling pay cuts for civil servants and rising the minimum wage. In addition, Prime Minister Costa gave incentives to businesses to invest. Real estate prices climbed, which helped people spend more.
Costa’s moderate social spending eased social tensions. His policies helped lower the unemployment rate from roughly 18% down to 6.7%, the best data since 2002. The Portuguese economy is growing slowly, and Tourism is booming. Foreign investment and construction are at a record high.
Despite all the positive data, let’s not forget that many Portuguese left the country, which helped lower the unemployment rate. Thanks to the crazy ECB monetary policy, interest rates on Portugal’s public debt of 122% of GDP are at an artificial low, which cannot be maintained forewer. At one point, interests will have to rise again. The awakening may be rude for the state, companies and individuals (not only in Portugal).
Will the — so far successful — formula of a minority government remain unchanged or will there be a coalition government? Will the Communists still be willing to support the goverment despite electoral losses?
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Photograph of the Portuguese Prime Minister António Luís Santos da Costa (*1961 in Lisbon) by Wikipedia user Manuelvbotelho.
Article added on October 7, 2019 at 20:08 German time.
