After roughly 14 months in office, the rhetorically embarassing first female leader of the German Social-Democrats (SPD), Andrea Nahles (article in German), resigned in June 2019. Subsequently, the SPD leadership decided to go for a kind of group therapy and elect a duo (Doppelspitze) of party leaders after 23 regional presentations by the male-female duos.
Although single candidates could present themselves, it was de-factory mandatory to have a woman and man on the ticket, as has been the case in the Green Party for decades. For Germany’s oldest party (established in 1863!), it was as first to opt for a duo.
The first round of the 2019 SPD party leadership election by the 430.000 party members took place between October 14 and 25. None of the six duos presenting themselves came even close to an absolute majority. The two-top placed teams made it into the runoff. First with 22.68% came the only (!) party-heavyweight in the leadership contest, Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz and his ticket-partner Klara Geywitz, a largely unknown former member of the Landtag of Brandenburg (2004-2019) who lost her seat in the regional parliament to a Green Party member during (!) the SPD leadership contest (German article about the Brandenburg election). Second with 21.04% came the former minister of finance of the regional state of North Rhine-Westphalia from 2010-2017, Norbert Walter-Borjans, and his largely unknown ticket partner, Saskia Esken, a member of the lower house of parliament (Bundestag) since 2013.
In the runoff election, the left-leaning and skeptics of the Grand Coalition on the national level, Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken clearly kept the upper hand with 53.06% over the pro-Grand Coalition, pragmatic, but stiff and dull Olaf Scholz and his ticket partner Klara Geywitz with 45.33%.
This was a huge blow to the party leadership since they had largely put their weight behind the duo Scholz-Geywitz. Scholz was once a key figure in the team of then chancellor Gerhard Schröder who pushed through hard economic reforms which substantially reduced Germany’s high unemployment rate but, at the same time, created a low-wage labor sector which partly hit SPD voters. The so-called Agenda 2010 and the Hartz IV reforms have been largely critized by almost all left-leaning Social-Democrats (and with some good reasons). However, back then, tough reforms were needed. Unfortunately, the many reform mistakes made were never substantially corrected during the 14-year reign of Angela Merkel, a largely incompetent politician (despite her high reputation, mostly abroad).
The defeat of Scholz and Geywitz did not come as a suprise despite their support by almost all party heavy-weights including the federal ministers Franziska Giffey (Family Minister), Hubertus Heil (Labour and Social Affairs) and Maas (Foreign Minister) and the regional minister-presidents Malu Dreyer (Rhineland-Palatinate), Manuela Schwesig (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) and Stephan Weil (Lower Saxony).
After the last national election defeat, the Social-Democrats decided to join the opposition. Back then, the general assumption was that Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), their Bavarian sister party CSU, the Greens and the Liberals (FDP) would form a so-called Jamaica Coalition. In the end, talks failed because the FDP leadership came to the somewhat contested conclusion that they would get ripped off again in a coalition with Merkel. In the end, the SPD reversed its course and decided to form again a Grand Coalition with the CDU/CSU. The party base approved the coalition treaty with 66% vs. 34% (article in German). The mind had told them to be supportive of the state once more — the Social-Democrats had been the last party to stand up against Hitler at the end of the Weimar Republic — but their hearts were with the opposition. That oppositional undercurrent has now won in the 2019 SPD party leadership contest.
Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken were and are critical of the Grand Coalition. They had the crucial support of the party youth around their left-wing leader Kevin Kühnert (article in German) who represent 80.000 out of the 430.000 party members. In addition, they enjoyed the support of the SPD most important regional chapter, the one of North Rhine-Westphalia.
So why will the SPD suffer further losses now? Because you cannot be supportive of the state and then, half-way, decide to be in favor of leaving the Grand Coalition despite the fact that, once again, the SPD, as the minority partner in the cabinet, has dominated the governmental agenda. Furthermore, directly after their election, Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken suddenly had much more moderate words regarding the Grand Coalition. However, during their campagin, the slogan of their supporters had been that, by Saint Nicolaus (December 6), the Grand Coalition would be over; it rhymes in German: Nikolaus ist GroKo aus.
Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken still insist on some changes to the governmental agenda. They would like to see more infrastructure spending, a more ambitious Green agenda and a higher minimum wage (12 Euro has be mentioned as a goal).
The self-destruction of the German Social-Democrats will continue because the fundamental problem of the SPD cannot be resolved. Roughly one-half is pragmatic and can see the advantages of the power sharing with the CDU/CSU. It is the ultimate goal of any serious politician to come to power and push through the agenda they are standing for. If you are a minister, you would like to keep your job. In a coalition government, logically, you can only push through a part of your agenda. You are forced to compromise. The other half of the SPD wants to find back to its pre-Hartz IV roots. In other words: They are dreaming of old-style, left-wing social democracy and even Socialism. They want to join to opposition banks to rejuvenate and regenerate.
The SPD’s dilemma is that, on the political left, the party called The Left (Die Linke) is socially more on the left and the Greens are greener. There is also no space at the political center and center-left because Chancellor Merkel has moved her CDU there.
During the SPD convention (Bundesparteitag) in Berlin from December 6-8, 2019 the party has not only formally endorsed the its new leadership (Walter-Borjans and Esken), it also had the task to re-elect its party presidency (SPD-Parteivorstand) composed of 34 members. In the first round of voting, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas did not make it into the Parteivorstand. It needed a second vote for him to finally make it.
Furthermore, the party member and businessman Harald Christ, responsible for the SPD’s relations with small- and medium-sized companies (Mittelstandsbeauftragter), the backbone of the German economy, Harald Christ, resigned from his job. No successor was appointed.
A new poll (Forsa) shows that only 3% of Germans have faith in the SPD’s ability to solve the country’s problems. If the party continues on this path of disharmony, inner power-struggle, division between the new party leadership duo and a majority of the party base on one side and the SPD federal ministers, regional minister presidents, a majority of other elected officials as well as a strong minority of the party base on the other side, the self-destruction of the German Social-Democrats will continue. Currently, the party polls around 11%.
The revolution has been postponed. The self-destruction continues. Single digits may soon become the norm.
Norbert Walter-Borjans. Screenshot from October 8, 2018 from the German TV show Hart aber fair, discussing the topic: „Der Staat schwimmt im Geld – aber warum haben die Bürger so wenig davon“. Photo Copyright © Raimond Spekking / CC BY-SA 4.0 (via Wikimedia Commons).
Article added in Berlin on December 8, 2019 at 14:54 German time. Last update at 22:46.
